Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 71.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center records, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS data, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6+ eruption from the Global Volcanism Program, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike according to NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies through mid-May. NOAA's May outlook forecasts below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid neutral ENSO conditions, curbing peak-season Cat 5 risks on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while global seismic and volcanic quiescence aligns with historical baselines—such events occur roughly every 5–10 years. Upcoming June-November forecast updates and real-time monitoring could shift odds if models detect intensification potential or geophysical precursors.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$217,711 Wol.
$217,711 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$217,711 Wol.
$217,711 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 71.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center records, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS data, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6+ eruption from the Global Volcanism Program, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike according to NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies through mid-May. NOAA's May outlook forecasts below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid neutral ENSO conditions, curbing peak-season Cat 5 risks on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while global seismic and volcanic quiescence aligns with historical baselines—such events occur roughly every 5–10 years. Upcoming June-November forecast updates and real-time monitoring could shift odds if models detect intensification potential or geophysical precursors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$217,711Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 71.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center records, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS data, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6+ eruption from the Global Volcanism Program, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike according to NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies through mid-May. NOAA's May outlook forecasts below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid neutral ENSO conditions, curbing peak-season Cat 5 risks on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while global seismic and volcanic quiescence aligns with historical baselines—such events occur roughly every 5–10 years. Upcoming June-November forecast updates and real-time monitoring could shift odds if models detect intensification potential or geophysical precursors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Wolumen
$217,711Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 71.5% probability of no qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the absence of any Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall per National Hurricane Center records, magnitude 8.5+ earthquake via USGS data, Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6+ eruption from the Global Volcanism Program, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike according to NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies through mid-May. NOAA's May outlook forecasts below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity amid neutral ENSO conditions, curbing peak-season Cat 5 risks on the Saffir-Simpson scale, while global seismic and volcanic quiescence aligns with historical baselines—such events occur roughly every 5–10 years. Upcoming June-November forecast updates and real-time monitoring could shift odds if models detect intensification potential or geophysical precursors.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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