Recent U.S. military actions in Venezuela and the earlier Iran conflict, including the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, resolved without triggering wider regional war, sustained economic shocks, or additional major-power interventions. No listed geopolitical triggers—such as a China-Taiwan invasion, Russian move against NATO territory, U.S. Iran invasion, or leadership changes for Trump or Xi Jinping—have materialized through late September. Bitcoin prices have stayed within bounds, natural-disaster thresholds remain unmet, and domestic U.S. political conditions have not produced a Republican Senate supermajority or other disqualifying shifts. With roughly three months left in the resolution window, the absence of these high-impact events continues to underpin the 84.5% trader consensus on “Yes.”