Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 92% for the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market because none of the resolution triggers have materialized with only weeks remaining until December 31. Recent U.S. midterm results delivered Democratic majorities in Congress without removing President Trump from office or creating a Republican supermajority trifecta. Ongoing tensions in the Iran conflict have not escalated to a U.S. invasion or regime change, while no Chinese action against Taiwan, leadership shifts in Beijing, Russian moves against NATO, or extreme cryptocurrency swings have occurred. Natural disasters and other listed thresholds also remain unmet. Late developments such as rapid conflict escalation, sudden political transitions, or unforeseen geophysical events could still shift probabilities before year-end.