SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a $1.75–2.1 trillion valuation, supported by Starlink revenue scaling and the February xAI acquisition that integrated AI capabilities into the combined entity, underpins its 60.5% implied probability as the largest 2026 listing by market cap. Anthropic's 38.3% odds reflect its May Series H round at a $965 billion post-money valuation and October IPO targeting $2 trillion, fueled by $47 billion run-rate revenue and AI demand growth. Lower probabilities for xAI (now part of SpaceX) and others like OpenAI stem from less advanced or smaller-scale public market plans amid sector-wide valuation multiples exceeding 100x trailing revenue for high-growth names. Trader consensus prices in these timelines and capital raises as key resolution factors.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNajwiększa pierwsza oferta publiczna według pułapów rynkowych w 2026 roku?
Największa pierwsza oferta publiczna według pułapów rynkowych w 2026 roku?
SpaceX 61%
Anthropic 38.1%
OpenAI <1%
Discord <1%
$5,416,385 Wol.
$5,416,385 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
61%
Anthropic
38%
OpenAI
<1%
Discord
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Stripe
<1%
Kraken
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
Waymo
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
Databricks
<1%
SpaceX 61%
Anthropic 38.1%
OpenAI <1%
Discord <1%
$5,416,385 Wol.
$5,416,385 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
SpaceX
$740,263 Wol.
61%
Anthropic
$781,764 Wol.
38%
OpenAI
$476,719 Wol.
<1%
Discord
$176,728 Wol.
<1%
ByteDance
$208,392 Wol.
<1%
Stripe
$128,177 Wol.
<1%
Kraken
$655,953 Wol.
<1%
SHEIN
$581,615 Wol.
<1%
Waymo
$316,150 Wol.
<1%
Revolut
$633,436 Wol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$104,136 Wol.
<1%
Databricks
$613,053 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a $1.75–2.1 trillion valuation, supported by Starlink revenue scaling and the February xAI acquisition that integrated AI capabilities into the combined entity, underpins its 60.5% implied probability as the largest 2026 listing by market cap. Anthropic's 38.3% odds reflect its May Series H round at a $965 billion post-money valuation and October IPO targeting $2 trillion, fueled by $47 billion run-rate revenue and AI demand growth. Lower probabilities for xAI (now part of SpaceX) and others like OpenAI stem from less advanced or smaller-scale public market plans amid sector-wide valuation multiples exceeding 100x trailing revenue for high-growth names. Trader consensus prices in these timelines and capital raises as key resolution factors.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$5,416,385Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a $1.75–2.1 trillion valuation, supported by Starlink revenue scaling and the February xAI acquisition that integrated AI capabilities into the combined entity, underpins its 60.5% implied probability as the largest 2026 listing by market cap. Anthropic's 38.3% odds reflect its May Series H round at a $965 billion post-money valuation and October IPO targeting $2 trillion, fueled by $47 billion run-rate revenue and AI demand growth. Lower probabilities for xAI (now part of SpaceX) and others like OpenAI stem from less advanced or smaller-scale public market plans amid sector-wide valuation multiples exceeding 100x trailing revenue for high-growth names. Trader consensus prices in these timelines and capital raises as key resolution factors.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Wolumen
$5,416,385Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX's June 2026 IPO at a $1.75–2.1 trillion valuation, supported by Starlink revenue scaling and the February xAI acquisition that integrated AI capabilities into the combined entity, underpins its 60.5% implied probability as the largest 2026 listing by market cap. Anthropic's 38.3% odds reflect its May Series H round at a $965 billion post-money valuation and October IPO targeting $2 trillion, fueled by $47 billion run-rate revenue and AI demand growth. Lower probabilities for xAI (now part of SpaceX) and others like OpenAI stem from less advanced or smaller-scale public market plans amid sector-wide valuation multiples exceeding 100x trailing revenue for high-growth names. Trader consensus prices in these timelines and capital raises as key resolution factors.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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