Trader consensus on Polymarket gives an 85.5% implied probability to a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19, driven by Google I/O's keynote kickoff that date, where the company historically unveils major AI model updates amid competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7. Recent catalysts include Gemini 3.2 Flash briefly appearing in the Gemini app's model selector for select users around May 5, alongside Vertex AI deprecations signaling an imminent Flash general availability and LM Arena testing of refreshed models. Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong reasoning benchmarks already position Google well, but reliable tool calling in 3.2 could reset leaderboards—though typical launch slips or feature tweaks remain risks ahead of the event.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGemini 3.2 released on...?
Gemini 3.2 released on...?
May 19 86%
May 20 5.2%
May 18 4.5%
May 22 2.1%
$210,567 Wol.
$210,567 Wol.
May 31, 2026
May 12
<1%
May 13
<1%
May 14
1%
May 15
<1%
May 16
<1%
May 17
<1%
May 18
5%
May 19
86%
May 20
5%
May 21
1%
May 22
2%
May 23
1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
1%
May 26
1%
May 27
1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
1%
May 19 86%
May 20 5.2%
May 18 4.5%
May 22 2.1%
$210,567 Wol.
$210,567 Wol.
May 31, 2026
May 12
$7,784 Wol.
<1%
May 13
$3,368 Wol.
<1%
May 14
$3,770 Wol.
1%
May 15
$6,886 Wol.
<1%
May 16
$5,588 Wol.
<1%
May 17
$6,348 Wol.
<1%
May 18
$16,370 Wol.
5%
May 19
$78,454 Wol.
86%
May 20
$12,419 Wol.
5%
May 21
$7,530 Wol.
1%
May 22
$9,273 Wol.
2%
May 23
$3,069 Wol.
1%
May 24
$3,950 Wol.
<1%
May 25
$2,132 Wol.
1%
May 26
$2,792 Wol.
1%
May 27
$2,335 Wol.
1%
May 28
$2,006 Wol.
<1%
May 29
$1,605 Wol.
<1%
May 30
$3,689 Wol.
<1%
May 31
$3,573 Wol.
<1%
No release by May 31
$8,948 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives an 85.5% implied probability to a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19, driven by Google I/O's keynote kickoff that date, where the company historically unveils major AI model updates amid competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7. Recent catalysts include Gemini 3.2 Flash briefly appearing in the Gemini app's model selector for select users around May 5, alongside Vertex AI deprecations signaling an imminent Flash general availability and LM Arena testing of refreshed models. Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong reasoning benchmarks already position Google well, but reliable tool calling in 3.2 could reset leaderboards—though typical launch slips or feature tweaks remain risks ahead of the event.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$210,567Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket gives an 85.5% implied probability to a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19, driven by Google I/O's keynote kickoff that date, where the company historically unveils major AI model updates amid competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7. Recent catalysts include Gemini 3.2 Flash briefly appearing in the Gemini app's model selector for select users around May 5, alongside Vertex AI deprecations signaling an imminent Flash general availability and LM Arena testing of refreshed models. Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong reasoning benchmarks already position Google well, but reliable tool calling in 3.2 could reset leaderboards—though typical launch slips or feature tweaks remain risks ahead of the event.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$210,567Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives an 85.5% implied probability to a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19, driven by Google I/O's keynote kickoff that date, where the company historically unveils major AI model updates amid competitive pressure from OpenAI's GPT-5.5 and Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7. Recent catalysts include Gemini 3.2 Flash briefly appearing in the Gemini app's model selector for select users around May 5, alongside Vertex AI deprecations signaling an imminent Flash general availability and LM Arena testing of refreshed models. Gemini 3.1 Pro's strong reasoning benchmarks already position Google well, but reliable tool calling in 3.2 could reset leaderboards—though typical launch slips or feature tweaks remain risks ahead of the event.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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