The frontier AI model race remains intensely competitive heading into late 2026, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series currently topping several independent leaderboards on reasoning and coding benchmarks while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro sit within a handful of Elo points. Frequent releases—OpenAI’s April 23 GPT-5.5 update, Anthropic’s Opus 4.7 rollout, and xAI’s Grok 4.3 beta—have kept performance gaps narrow, shifting trader focus to which lab can sustain incremental gains through year-end. Key catalysts ahead include expected summer or fall iterations from all four labs, potential context-window expansions, and developer ecosystem momentum that could tip aggregated benchmarks. The market reflects real capital betting on this ongoing technical convergence rather than any single breakthrough.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
$14,200 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
77%
OpenAI
41%
xAI
21%
ByteDance
15%
Meta
14%
Z.ai
11%
DeepSeek
10%
Microsoft
10%
Alibaba
9%
Moonshot
9%
Baidu
9%
Amazon
9%
Mistral
8%
Meituan
7%
$14,200 Wol.
$1,874 Wol.
77%
OpenAI
$3,368 Wol.
41%
xAI
$3,158 Wol.
21%
ByteDance
$1,157 Wol.
15%
Meta
$881 Wol.
14%
Z.ai
$82 Wol.
11%
DeepSeek
$440 Wol.
10%
Microsoft
$100 Wol.
10%
Alibaba
$0 Wol.
9%
Moonshot
$320 Wol.
9%
Baidu
$102 Wol.
9%
Amazon
$86 Wol.
9%
Mistral
$1,448 Wol.
8%
Meituan
$1,183 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.The frontier AI model race remains intensely competitive heading into late 2026, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series currently topping several independent leaderboards on reasoning and coding benchmarks while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro sit within a handful of Elo points. Frequent releases—OpenAI’s April 23 GPT-5.5 update, Anthropic’s Opus 4.7 rollout, and xAI’s Grok 4.3 beta—have kept performance gaps narrow, shifting trader focus to which lab can sustain incremental gains through year-end. Key catalysts ahead include expected summer or fall iterations from all four labs, potential context-window expansions, and developer ecosystem momentum that could tip aggregated benchmarks. The market reflects real capital betting on this ongoing technical convergence rather than any single breakthrough.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Wolumen
$14,200Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.The frontier AI model race remains intensely competitive heading into late 2026, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series currently topping several independent leaderboards on reasoning and coding benchmarks while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro sit within a handful of Elo points. Frequent releases—OpenAI’s April 23 GPT-5.5 update, Anthropic’s Opus 4.7 rollout, and xAI’s Grok 4.3 beta—have kept performance gaps narrow, shifting trader focus to which lab can sustain incremental gains through year-end. Key catalysts ahead include expected summer or fall iterations from all four labs, potential context-window expansions, and developer ecosystem momentum that could tip aggregated benchmarks. The market reflects real capital betting on this ongoing technical convergence rather than any single breakthrough.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Wolumen
$14,200Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The frontier AI model race remains intensely competitive heading into late 2026, with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series currently topping several independent leaderboards on reasoning and coding benchmarks while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro sit within a handful of Elo points. Frequent releases—OpenAI’s April 23 GPT-5.5 update, Anthropic’s Opus 4.7 rollout, and xAI’s Grok 4.3 beta—have kept performance gaps narrow, shifting trader focus to which lab can sustain incremental gains through year-end. Key catalysts ahead include expected summer or fall iterations from all four labs, potential context-window expansions, and developer ecosystem momentum that could tip aggregated benchmarks. The market reflects real capital betting on this ongoing technical convergence rather than any single breakthrough.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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