OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI continue to drive the frontier AI race with no single company holding undisputed leadership as of mid-2026. Claude Opus variants frequently top intelligence and coding benchmarks, while Gemini models lead in reasoning metrics like GPQA and multimodal tasks, and GPT-5 series maintain broad adoption and ecosystem strength. Grok 4 remains competitive in real-time capabilities. Fragmented performance across use cases, frequent model iterations, and benchmark shifts create ongoing uncertainty. Traders watch for late-year releases, capability demonstrations, and third-party evaluations that could establish a new #1 before December 31.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
$119,657 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
OpenAI
35%
20%
Alibaba
13%
Meta
13%
xAI
13%
Moonshot
11%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Amazon
8%
Microsoft
8%
Baidu
7%
Meituan
6%
Mistral
3%
$119,657 Wol.
OpenAI
$22,548 Wol.
35%
$17,193 Wol.
20%
Alibaba
$3,366 Wol.
13%
Meta
$14,909 Wol.
13%
xAI
$8,816 Wol.
13%
Moonshot
$6,686 Wol.
11%
Z.ai
$2,545 Wol.
9%
ByteDance
$2,876 Wol.
8%
DeepSeek
$20,581 Wol.
8%
Amazon
$2,787 Wol.
8%
Microsoft
$3,519 Wol.
8%
Baidu
$1,958 Wol.
7%
Meituan
$2,435 Wol.
6%
Mistral
$9,437 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI continue to drive the frontier AI race with no single company holding undisputed leadership as of mid-2026. Claude Opus variants frequently top intelligence and coding benchmarks, while Gemini models lead in reasoning metrics like GPQA and multimodal tasks, and GPT-5 series maintain broad adoption and ecosystem strength. Grok 4 remains competitive in real-time capabilities. Fragmented performance across use cases, frequent model iterations, and benchmark shifts create ongoing uncertainty. Traders watch for late-year releases, capability demonstrations, and third-party evaluations that could establish a new #1 before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Wolumen
$119,657Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI continue to drive the frontier AI race with no single company holding undisputed leadership as of mid-2026. Claude Opus variants frequently top intelligence and coding benchmarks, while Gemini models lead in reasoning metrics like GPQA and multimodal tasks, and GPT-5 series maintain broad adoption and ecosystem strength. Grok 4 remains competitive in real-time capabilities. Fragmented performance across use cases, frequent model iterations, and benchmark shifts create ongoing uncertainty. Traders watch for late-year releases, capability demonstrations, and third-party evaluations that could establish a new #1 before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Wolumen
$119,657Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI continue to drive the frontier AI race with no single company holding undisputed leadership as of mid-2026. Claude Opus variants frequently top intelligence and coding benchmarks, while Gemini models lead in reasoning metrics like GPQA and multimodal tasks, and GPT-5 series maintain broad adoption and ecosystem strength. Grok 4 remains competitive in real-time capabilities. Fragmented performance across use cases, frequent model iterations, and benchmark shifts create ongoing uncertainty. Traders watch for late-year releases, capability demonstrations, and third-party evaluations that could establish a new #1 before December 31.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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