Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to OpenAI achieving a closing IPO market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion, propelled by the company's March 31, 2026, funding round that raised $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation—more than doubling prior marks amid surging AI demand and enterprise shifts. This positions higher brackets as leaders, with traders pricing in aggressive multiple expansion akin to recent tech IPO premiums, bolstered by CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 listing push. However, early May reports of CFO Sarah Friar's concerns over missed revenue targets, projected $14 billion 2026 losses, and profitability delays to 2030 have elevated the "No IPO by December 31, 2027" outcome to 19%, signaling timeline risks absent an S-1 filing. Watch Q2 updates for resolution catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano1.5T+ 73.3%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 18%
1T–1.25T 9%
1.25T–1.5T 9%
$16,653 Wol.
$16,653 Wol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
8%
500–750B
9%
750B–1T
34%
1T–1.25T
19%
1.25T–1.5T
9%
1.5T+
73%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
18%
1.5T+ 73.3%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 18%
1T–1.25T 9%
1.25T–1.5T 9%
$16,653 Wol.
$16,653 Wol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$150 Wol.
8%
500–750B
$319 Wol.
9%
750B–1T
$453 Wol.
34%
1T–1.25T
$3,229 Wol.
19%
1.25T–1.5T
$509 Wol.
9%
1.5T+
$464 Wol.
73%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$11,530 Wol.
18%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to OpenAI achieving a closing IPO market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion, propelled by the company's March 31, 2026, funding round that raised $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation—more than doubling prior marks amid surging AI demand and enterprise shifts. This positions higher brackets as leaders, with traders pricing in aggressive multiple expansion akin to recent tech IPO premiums, bolstered by CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 listing push. However, early May reports of CFO Sarah Friar's concerns over missed revenue targets, projected $14 billion 2026 losses, and profitability delays to 2030 have elevated the "No IPO by December 31, 2027" outcome to 19%, signaling timeline risks absent an S-1 filing. Watch Q2 updates for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Wolumen
$16,653Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to OpenAI achieving a closing IPO market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion, propelled by the company's March 31, 2026, funding round that raised $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation—more than doubling prior marks amid surging AI demand and enterprise shifts. This positions higher brackets as leaders, with traders pricing in aggressive multiple expansion akin to recent tech IPO premiums, bolstered by CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 listing push. However, early May reports of CFO Sarah Friar's concerns over missed revenue targets, projected $14 billion 2026 losses, and profitability delays to 2030 have elevated the "No IPO by December 31, 2027" outcome to 19%, signaling timeline risks absent an S-1 filing. Watch Q2 updates for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Wolumen
$16,653Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72% implied probability to OpenAI achieving a closing IPO market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion, propelled by the company's March 31, 2026, funding round that raised $122 billion at an $852 billion post-money valuation—more than doubling prior marks amid surging AI demand and enterprise shifts. This positions higher brackets as leaders, with traders pricing in aggressive multiple expansion akin to recent tech IPO premiums, bolstered by CEO Sam Altman's Q4 2026 listing push. However, early May reports of CFO Sarah Friar's concerns over missed revenue targets, projected $14 billion 2026 losses, and profitability delays to 2030 have elevated the "No IPO by December 31, 2027" outcome to 19%, signaling timeline risks absent an S-1 filing. Watch Q2 updates for resolution catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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