OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing and $852 billion March 2026 private valuation underpin the 34.6% implied probability of a 1.5T+ closing market cap, driven by a $24 billion annualized revenue run rate that is expanding rapidly through ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise APIs. Persistent GAAP losses exceeding $20 billion annually, heavy capital expenditures, and competition from Anthropic limit consensus around lower brackets between $1T and $1.5T. Timing uncertainty, with filings eyed for late 2026 or 2027, elevates the 9.5% chance of no IPO by end-2027 while recent model launches and potential S-1 disclosures remain key swing factors for final pricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano1.5T+ 34.6%
1.25T–1.5T 23%
1T–1.25T 21.1%
750B–1T 11%
$87,991 Wol.
$87,991 Wol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
1%
500–750B
3%
750B–1T
11%
1T–1.25T
21%
1.25T–1.5T
23%
1.5T+
35%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
10%
1.5T+ 34.6%
1.25T–1.5T 23%
1T–1.25T 21.1%
750B–1T 11%
$87,991 Wol.
$87,991 Wol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$6,134 Wol.
1%
500–750B
$8,207 Wol.
3%
750B–1T
$9,178 Wol.
11%
1T–1.25T
$13,974 Wol.
21%
1.25T–1.5T
$8,540 Wol.
23%
1.5T+
$22,625 Wol.
35%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$19,333 Wol.
10%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing and $852 billion March 2026 private valuation underpin the 34.6% implied probability of a 1.5T+ closing market cap, driven by a $24 billion annualized revenue run rate that is expanding rapidly through ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise APIs. Persistent GAAP losses exceeding $20 billion annually, heavy capital expenditures, and competition from Anthropic limit consensus around lower brackets between $1T and $1.5T. Timing uncertainty, with filings eyed for late 2026 or 2027, elevates the 9.5% chance of no IPO by end-2027 while recent model launches and potential S-1 disclosures remain key swing factors for final pricing.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Wolumen
$87,991Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing and $852 billion March 2026 private valuation underpin the 34.6% implied probability of a 1.5T+ closing market cap, driven by a $24 billion annualized revenue run rate that is expanding rapidly through ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise APIs. Persistent GAAP losses exceeding $20 billion annually, heavy capital expenditures, and competition from Anthropic limit consensus around lower brackets between $1T and $1.5T. Timing uncertainty, with filings eyed for late 2026 or 2027, elevates the 9.5% chance of no IPO by end-2027 while recent model launches and potential S-1 disclosures remain key swing factors for final pricing.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Wolumen
$87,991Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s confidential IPO filing and $852 billion March 2026 private valuation underpin the 34.6% implied probability of a 1.5T+ closing market cap, driven by a $24 billion annualized revenue run rate that is expanding rapidly through ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise APIs. Persistent GAAP losses exceeding $20 billion annually, heavy capital expenditures, and competition from Anthropic limit consensus around lower brackets between $1T and $1.5T. Timing uncertainty, with filings eyed for late 2026 or 2027, elevates the 9.5% chance of no IPO by end-2027 while recent model launches and potential S-1 disclosures remain key swing factors for final pricing.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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