Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 96.7% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated delays after its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July term-sheet revisions for a modest $45–50 million NYSE American offering of roughly 5.5 million shares at $8–10. As a late-stage ophthalmic biotech with no product revenue and a Phase 3 asset still advancing, the company faces typical small-cap biotech hurdles including market sentiment, regulatory timelines, and investor appetite for low-float listings implying $290–300 million valuations. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, any last-minute pricing or upsizing before that date remains the primary swing factor that could shift odds, though current filings and lack of recent updates continue to anchor trader consensus on further postponement.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNo IPO before September 2026 97.0%
$300M-$350M <1%
$400M-$450M <1%
$350M-$400M <1%
$17,975 Wol.
$17,975 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
<$250M
<1%
$250M-$300M
<1%
$300M-$350M
<1%
$350M-$400M
<1%
$400M-$450M
<1%
>$450M
<1%
No IPO before September 2026
97%
No IPO before September 2026 97.0%
$300M-$350M <1%
$400M-$450M <1%
$350M-$400M <1%
$17,975 Wol.
$17,975 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
<$250M
$1,152 Wol.
<1%
$250M-$300M
$1,113 Wol.
<1%
$300M-$350M
$1,642 Wol.
<1%
$350M-$400M
$837 Wol.
<1%
$400M-$450M
$629 Wol.
<1%
>$450M
$1,068 Wol.
<1%
No IPO before September 2026
$11,534 Wol.
97%
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 96.7% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated delays after its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July term-sheet revisions for a modest $45–50 million NYSE American offering of roughly 5.5 million shares at $8–10. As a late-stage ophthalmic biotech with no product revenue and a Phase 3 asset still advancing, the company faces typical small-cap biotech hurdles including market sentiment, regulatory timelines, and investor appetite for low-float listings implying $290–300 million valuations. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, any last-minute pricing or upsizing before that date remains the primary swing factor that could shift odds, though current filings and lack of recent updates continue to anchor trader consensus on further postponement.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ET
Wolumen
$17,975Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 96.7% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated delays after its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July term-sheet revisions for a modest $45–50 million NYSE American offering of roughly 5.5 million shares at $8–10. As a late-stage ophthalmic biotech with no product revenue and a Phase 3 asset still advancing, the company faces typical small-cap biotech hurdles including market sentiment, regulatory timelines, and investor appetite for low-float listings implying $290–300 million valuations. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, any last-minute pricing or upsizing before that date remains the primary swing factor that could shift odds, though current filings and lack of recent updates continue to anchor trader consensus on further postponement.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
Wolumen
$17,975Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 96.7% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated delays after its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July term-sheet revisions for a modest $45–50 million NYSE American offering of roughly 5.5 million shares at $8–10. As a late-stage ophthalmic biotech with no product revenue and a Phase 3 asset still advancing, the company faces typical small-cap biotech hurdles including market sentiment, regulatory timelines, and investor appetite for low-float listings implying $290–300 million valuations. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, any last-minute pricing or upsizing before that date remains the primary swing factor that could shift odds, though current filings and lack of recent updates continue to anchor trader consensus on further postponement.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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