Anthropic’s accelerated path to a November 2026 IPO at a targeted $2 trillion valuation underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability it will post a higher closing market cap than OpenAI. The Claude developer confidentially filed in June, reported an annualized revenue run rate exceeding $65 billion by July with projections toward $110 billion by year-end and $190–200 billion by 2028, and disclosed $518 billion in compute commitments despite 2025 net losses of $42 billion. OpenAI, by contrast, has deferred its public listing until 2027 amid AI safety priorities, instead pursuing bridge financing at roughly $1.4 trillion while its revenue run rate approaches $70 billion. Traders view Anthropic’s earlier liquidity event and aggressive pricing as the decisive factors shaping current consensus.