OpenAI’s dispersed Polymarket odds, with <$30B leading at 32.2% and the next tier at 24.5%, reflect uncertainty around a still-pending IPO after the September 2026 window passed. The company confidentially filed its S-1 in June, yet CFO Sarah Friar signaled a 2027 debut or later unless revenue inflects sharply, prioritizing a $1 trillion valuation target over a quicker listing at current levels near $852 billion post its March $122 billion round. A $7 billion August secondary tender at that valuation provided liquidity without public pricing, while projected 2026 losses near $14 billion and competition from Anthropic’s own filing add volatility. Traders are pricing in execution risks, potential share dilution, and broader tech IPO sentiment before any capital raise materializes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow much will OpenAI raise in its IPO?
<$30B 32.8%
$40B–$50B 20.6%
$100B+ 12%
$70B–$80B 8.7%
<$30B
33%
$30B–$40B
4%
$40B–$50B
24%
$50B–$60B
6%
$60B–$70B
8%
$70B–$80B
9%
$80B–$90B
21%
$90B–$100B
3%
$100B+
12%
<$30B 32.8%
$40B–$50B 20.6%
$100B+ 12%
$70B–$80B 8.7%
<$30B
33%
$30B–$40B
4%
$40B–$50B
24%
$50B–$60B
6%
$60B–$70B
8%
$70B–$80B
9%
$80B–$90B
21%
$90B–$100B
3%
$100B+
12%
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s dispersed Polymarket odds, with <$30B leading at 32.2% and the next tier at 24.5%, reflect uncertainty around a still-pending IPO after the September 2026 window passed. The company confidentially filed its S-1 in June, yet CFO Sarah Friar signaled a 2027 debut or later unless revenue inflects sharply, prioritizing a $1 trillion valuation target over a quicker listing at current levels near $852 billion post its March $122 billion round. A $7 billion August secondary tender at that valuation provided liquidity without public pricing, while projected 2026 losses near $14 billion and competition from Anthropic’s own filing add volatility. Traders are pricing in execution risks, potential share dilution, and broader tech IPO sentiment before any capital raise materializes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano


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