SpaceX's recent Flight 13 success in July 2026, featuring a precise Starship upper-stage reentry, intact soft splashdown, functional heat shield performance, and in-space Raptor relight, has bolstered trader confidence in achieving full reusability before 2028. Multiple Super Heavy booster tower catches and a planned reflight of a recovered booster later this year demonstrate rapid progress on the first stage, while V3 design refinements address engine reliability and thermal protection. Upcoming catalysts include Flight 14's targeted September 2026 orbital profile with Starlink V3 deployment and potential ship catch attempts, alongside further tower integration tests. However, demonstrating a controlled ship return to the Mechazilla arms, followed by actual upper-stage reflight amid FAA licensing and landing-burn consistency, remains the key swing factor keeping the implied probability near 60%.