Recent model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta in early September have intensified competition for #2 positioning among frontier labs, with benchmarks showing tight clustering on capabilities like reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants lead or tie several independent indices, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini updates emphasize practical control features that align with “style control” evaluation criteria. Ongoing CEO discussions on coordinated safety standards and a new antitrust lawsuit alleging development slowdowns add uncertainty, as traders weigh alignment strengths against raw performance and release cadence through November. Chinese labs like Moonshot and Z.ai remain competitive on cost and open weights but trail on top-tier benchmarks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)
#2 AI Lab end of November? (Style Control On)
Meta 29%
Google 28%
Anthropic 22%
SpaceXAI 9.5%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 30, 2026
Meta
29%
28%
Anthropic
22%
SpaceXAI
10%
OpenAI
8%
Tencent
4%
Moonshot
4%
ByteDance
4%
Microsoft
4%
MiniMax
3%
Alibaba
3%
Baidu
2%
Z.ai
10%
DeepSeek
10%
Amazon
1%
Nvidia
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
Mistral
1%
StepFun
1%
Meta 29%
Google 28%
Anthropic 22%
SpaceXAI 9.5%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 30, 2026
Meta
$931 Wol.
29%
$1,871 Wol.
28%
Anthropic
$547 Wol.
22%
SpaceXAI
$170 Wol.
10%
OpenAI
$239 Wol.
8%
Tencent
$648 Wol.
4%
Moonshot
$150 Wol.
4%
ByteDance
$153 Wol.
4%
Microsoft
$150 Wol.
4%
MiniMax
$884 Wol.
3%
Alibaba
$194 Wol.
3%
Baidu
$198 Wol.
2%
Z.ai
$191 Wol.
10%
DeepSeek
$260 Wol.
10%
Amazon
$144 Wol.
1%
Nvidia
$150 Wol.
1%
Xiaomi
$150 Wol.
1%
Thinky
$149 Wol.
1%
Meituan
$150 Wol.
1%
Mistral
$150 Wol.
1%
StepFun
$150 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta in early September have intensified competition for #2 positioning among frontier labs, with benchmarks showing tight clustering on capabilities like reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants lead or tie several independent indices, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini updates emphasize practical control features that align with “style control” evaluation criteria. Ongoing CEO discussions on coordinated safety standards and a new antitrust lawsuit alleging development slowdowns add uncertainty, as traders weigh alignment strengths against raw performance and release cadence through November. Chinese labs like Moonshot and Z.ai remain competitive on cost and open weights but trail on top-tier benchmarks.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Wolumen
$7,632Data zakończenia
Dec 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta in early September have intensified competition for #2 positioning among frontier labs, with benchmarks showing tight clustering on capabilities like reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants lead or tie several independent indices, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini updates emphasize practical control features that align with “style control” evaluation criteria. Ongoing CEO discussions on coordinated safety standards and a new antitrust lawsuit alleging development slowdowns add uncertainty, as traders weigh alignment strengths against raw performance and release cadence through November. Chinese labs like Moonshot and Z.ai remain competitive on cost and open weights but trail on top-tier benchmarks.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$7,632Data zakończenia
Dec 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and Meta in early September have intensified competition for #2 positioning among frontier labs, with benchmarks showing tight clustering on capabilities like reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants lead or tie several independent indices, while OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and Google’s Gemini updates emphasize practical control features that align with “style control” evaluation criteria. Ongoing CEO discussions on coordinated safety standards and a new antitrust lawsuit alleging development slowdowns add uncertainty, as traders weigh alignment strengths against raw performance and release cadence through November. Chinese labs like Moonshot and Z.ai remain competitive on cost and open weights but trail on top-tier benchmarks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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