SpaceX’s Starship program continues to face significant technical hurdles in achieving full and rapid reusability of both the Super Heavy booster and upper stage before the end of 2026, supporting the market’s 68% “No” consensus. Despite the April 2026 unveiling of Starship V3 with redesigned structures, advanced Raptor 3 engines, and improved heat-shield tiles, the vehicle has yet to demonstrate repeated orbital-class flights with quick turnaround recovery and minimal refurbishment. Recent test campaigns highlight persistent challenges in engine relight reliability, precise landing accuracy, and thermal protection under high-cycle reuse, echoing the complexity that delayed similar ambitions in prior generations. Upcoming V3 flight tests later this year remain key catalysts that could alter trader sentiment if they deliver the sequential successes needed for operational reuse.