xAI's repeated delays on Grok 5, a planned large language model with 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts variants training on the Colossus 2 supercluster, have shaped trader sentiment around the prediction market. After missing original late-2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026 targets confirmed in funding announcements and Musk statements, the company instead shipped interim flagships including Grok 4.5 in July 2026 and Grok 4.6 shortly after, both positioned for coding and agentic tasks. A recent xAI update points to a year-end 2026 release window amid internal restructuring following the SpaceX integration, while rivals like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Chinese labs continue faster iteration cycles. Key catalysts ahead include further Colossus expansions, benchmark releases, or any Musk updates on training progress that could shift implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGrok 5 released by...?
Grok 5 released by...?
NOWE
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
October 31
21%
November 30
54%
December 31
70%
$8,525 Wol.
August 31
$3,541 Wol.
<1%
October 31
$1,729 Wol.
21%
November 30
$21 Wol.
54%
December 31
$1,711 Wol.
70%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's repeated delays on Grok 5, a planned large language model with 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts variants training on the Colossus 2 supercluster, have shaped trader sentiment around the prediction market. After missing original late-2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026 targets confirmed in funding announcements and Musk statements, the company instead shipped interim flagships including Grok 4.5 in July 2026 and Grok 4.6 shortly after, both positioned for coding and agentic tasks. A recent xAI update points to a year-end 2026 release window amid internal restructuring following the SpaceX integration, while rivals like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Chinese labs continue faster iteration cycles. Key catalysts ahead include further Colossus expansions, benchmark releases, or any Musk updates on training progress that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Wolumen
$8,525Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI's repeated delays on Grok 5, a planned large language model with 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts variants training on the Colossus 2 supercluster, have shaped trader sentiment around the prediction market. After missing original late-2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026 targets confirmed in funding announcements and Musk statements, the company instead shipped interim flagships including Grok 4.5 in July 2026 and Grok 4.6 shortly after, both positioned for coding and agentic tasks. A recent xAI update points to a year-end 2026 release window amid internal restructuring following the SpaceX integration, while rivals like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Chinese labs continue faster iteration cycles. Key catalysts ahead include further Colossus expansions, benchmark releases, or any Musk updates on training progress that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$8,525Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's repeated delays on Grok 5, a planned large language model with 6T–10T parameter Mixture-of-Experts variants training on the Colossus 2 supercluster, have shaped trader sentiment around the prediction market. After missing original late-2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026 targets confirmed in funding announcements and Musk statements, the company instead shipped interim flagships including Grok 4.5 in July 2026 and Grok 4.6 shortly after, both positioned for coding and agentic tasks. A recent xAI update points to a year-end 2026 release window amid internal restructuring following the SpaceX integration, while rivals like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Chinese labs continue faster iteration cycles. Key catalysts ahead include further Colossus expansions, benchmark releases, or any Musk updates on training progress that could shift implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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