Trader sentiment assigns the highest implied probability to 2026 finishing as the second-warmest year on record, driven by January–March global temperatures ranking fourth highest in NOAA analyses alongside model projections centering near 1.47 °C above the pre-industrial baseline. Ongoing anthropogenic warming and the anticipated transition to El Niño conditions later in 2026 provide a modest upward boost to remaining months, yet most ensemble forecasts keep the annual anomaly below 2024’s peak. This leaves a narrower path to first place and sharply lower odds for third or lower rankings, consistent with the near-certainty of a top-five finish.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGdzie rok 2026 znajdzie się wśród najgorętszych lat w historii?
Gdzie rok 2026 znajdzie się wśród najgorętszych lat w historii?
2 57%
1 35%
4 2.8%
6 lub niżej 2.3%
$2,820,243 Wol.
$2,820,243 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
1
35%
2
57%
3
2%
4
3%
5
1%
6 lub niżej
2%
2 57%
1 35%
4 2.8%
6 lub niżej 2.3%
$2,820,243 Wol.
$2,820,243 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
1
$453,726 Wol.
35%
2
$325,824 Wol.
57%
3
$428,143 Wol.
2%
4
$416,574 Wol.
3%
5
$731,047 Wol.
1%
6 lub niżej
$464,929 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment assigns the highest implied probability to 2026 finishing as the second-warmest year on record, driven by January–March global temperatures ranking fourth highest in NOAA analyses alongside model projections centering near 1.47 °C above the pre-industrial baseline. Ongoing anthropogenic warming and the anticipated transition to El Niño conditions later in 2026 provide a modest upward boost to remaining months, yet most ensemble forecasts keep the annual anomaly below 2024’s peak. This leaves a narrower path to first place and sharply lower odds for third or lower rankings, consistent with the near-certainty of a top-five finish.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,820,243Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment assigns the highest implied probability to 2026 finishing as the second-warmest year on record, driven by January–March global temperatures ranking fourth highest in NOAA analyses alongside model projections centering near 1.47 °C above the pre-industrial baseline. Ongoing anthropogenic warming and the anticipated transition to El Niño conditions later in 2026 provide a modest upward boost to remaining months, yet most ensemble forecasts keep the annual anomaly below 2024’s peak. This leaves a narrower path to first place and sharply lower odds for third or lower rankings, consistent with the near-certainty of a top-five finish.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$2,820,243Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment assigns the highest implied probability to 2026 finishing as the second-warmest year on record, driven by January–March global temperatures ranking fourth highest in NOAA analyses alongside model projections centering near 1.47 °C above the pre-industrial baseline. Ongoing anthropogenic warming and the anticipated transition to El Niño conditions later in 2026 provide a modest upward boost to remaining months, yet most ensemble forecasts keep the annual anomaly below 2024’s peak. This leaves a narrower path to first place and sharply lower odds for third or lower rankings, consistent with the near-certainty of a top-five finish.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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