Recent NOAA Storm Prediction Center data show the U.S. has recorded roughly 1,146 confirmed tornadoes through mid-August 2026, placing the annual total on pace for a moderately above-average year relative to the long-term mean of about 1,000–1,200 reports. Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to 1,250 or more because the spring severe-weather window produced near-normal activity while climatological peaks in the Plains and Midwest during late summer and early fall typically add several hundred additional reports. Model guidance and ENSO-neutral conditions support continued opportunities for supercell development without the extreme outbreak frequency seen in 2025 (1,559 tornadoes). Resolution hinges on final SPC verification counts through December, with any late-season tropical-transition events or persistent warm, moist patterns able to push totals higher.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 86%
1200–1249 7.9%
1150–1199 7.0%
<950 3.9%
$81,752 Wol.
$81,752 Wol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
4%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
7%
1200–1249
8%
1250+
86%
1250+ 86%
1200–1249 7.9%
1150–1199 7.0%
<950 3.9%
$81,752 Wol.
$81,752 Wol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$23,720 Wol.
4%
950–999
$3,618 Wol.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Wol.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 Wol.
<1%
1100–1149
$3,248 Wol.
4%
1150–1199
$4,082 Wol.
7%
1200–1249
$15,917 Wol.
8%
1250+
$18,543 Wol.
86%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent NOAA Storm Prediction Center data show the U.S. has recorded roughly 1,146 confirmed tornadoes through mid-August 2026, placing the annual total on pace for a moderately above-average year relative to the long-term mean of about 1,000–1,200 reports. Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to 1,250 or more because the spring severe-weather window produced near-normal activity while climatological peaks in the Plains and Midwest during late summer and early fall typically add several hundred additional reports. Model guidance and ENSO-neutral conditions support continued opportunities for supercell development without the extreme outbreak frequency seen in 2025 (1,559 tornadoes). Resolution hinges on final SPC verification counts through December, with any late-season tropical-transition events or persistent warm, moist patterns able to push totals higher.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Wolumen
$81,752Data zakończenia
Jan 10, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Recent NOAA Storm Prediction Center data show the U.S. has recorded roughly 1,146 confirmed tornadoes through mid-August 2026, placing the annual total on pace for a moderately above-average year relative to the long-term mean of about 1,000–1,200 reports. Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to 1,250 or more because the spring severe-weather window produced near-normal activity while climatological peaks in the Plains and Midwest during late summer and early fall typically add several hundred additional reports. Model guidance and ENSO-neutral conditions support continued opportunities for supercell development without the extreme outbreak frequency seen in 2025 (1,559 tornadoes). Resolution hinges on final SPC verification counts through December, with any late-season tropical-transition events or persistent warm, moist patterns able to push totals higher.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Wolumen
$81,752Data zakończenia
Jan 10, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent NOAA Storm Prediction Center data show the U.S. has recorded roughly 1,146 confirmed tornadoes through mid-August 2026, placing the annual total on pace for a moderately above-average year relative to the long-term mean of about 1,000–1,200 reports. Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to 1,250 or more because the spring severe-weather window produced near-normal activity while climatological peaks in the Plains and Midwest during late summer and early fall typically add several hundred additional reports. Model guidance and ENSO-neutral conditions support continued opportunities for supercell development without the extreme outbreak frequency seen in 2025 (1,559 tornadoes). Resolution hinges on final SPC verification counts through December, with any late-season tropical-transition events or persistent warm, moist patterns able to push totals higher.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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