Current ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF place Madrid’s August 16 peak temperature most likely in the 33–35 °C range under a persistent late-summer anticyclone over the Iberian Peninsula. Clear skies, strong insolation, and subsiding air favor daytime heating, while model spread in exact thermal advection and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight 34 °C versus 35 °C contest visible in trader positioning. Historical August maxima average near 32 °C, so any slight positive anomaly or delayed cooling would push probabilities higher; fresh model runs and AEMET updates over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Madrid on August 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 16?
34°C 42%
35°C 35%
36°C 15%
33°C 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
3%
33°C
8%
34°C
42%
35°C
35%
36°C
15%
37°C or higher
2%
34°C 42%
35°C 35%
36°C 15%
33°C 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
$309 Wol.
<1%
28°C
$141 Wol.
<1%
29°C
$111 Wol.
<1%
30°C
$33 Wol.
<1%
31°C
$29 Wol.
<1%
32°C
$69 Wol.
3%
33°C
$269 Wol.
8%
34°C
$617 Wol.
42%
35°C
$2,049 Wol.
35%
36°C
$341 Wol.
15%
37°C or higher
$97 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF place Madrid’s August 16 peak temperature most likely in the 33–35 °C range under a persistent late-summer anticyclone over the Iberian Peninsula. Clear skies, strong insolation, and subsiding air favor daytime heating, while model spread in exact thermal advection and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight 34 °C versus 35 °C contest visible in trader positioning. Historical August maxima average near 32 °C, so any slight positive anomaly or delayed cooling would push probabilities higher; fresh model runs and AEMET updates over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$4,066Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF place Madrid’s August 16 peak temperature most likely in the 33–35 °C range under a persistent late-summer anticyclone over the Iberian Peninsula. Clear skies, strong insolation, and subsiding air favor daytime heating, while model spread in exact thermal advection and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight 34 °C versus 35 °C contest visible in trader positioning. Historical August maxima average near 32 °C, so any slight positive anomaly or delayed cooling would push probabilities higher; fresh model runs and AEMET updates over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$4,066Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from AEMET and ECMWF place Madrid’s August 16 peak temperature most likely in the 33–35 °C range under a persistent late-summer anticyclone over the Iberian Peninsula. Clear skies, strong insolation, and subsiding air favor daytime heating, while model spread in exact thermal advection and boundary-layer mixing creates the tight 34 °C versus 35 °C contest visible in trader positioning. Historical August maxima average near 32 °C, so any slight positive anomaly or delayed cooling would push probabilities higher; fresh model runs and AEMET updates over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania