Recent PAGASA outlooks and ensemble model guidance for Metro Manila indicate daytime highs near 30–33°C on August 16, driven by the prevailing southwest monsoon (Habagat) that typically delivers scattered showers, thunderstorms, and persistent cloud cover during peak rainy-season conditions. These factors limit solar heating and cap extreme maxima, aligning trader consensus around the 29–31°C outcomes that together exceed 80% implied probability. Historical August averages of roughly 31°C provide climatological context, while short-term model runs show modest spread due to variable low-pressure influences and localized rainfall intensity; updated official forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria for this temperature-threshold market.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Manila on August 16?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 16?
30°C 43%
29°C 25%
31°C 19%
28°C 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
9%
29°C
25%
30°C
43%
31°C
19%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 43%
29°C 25%
31°C 19%
28°C 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
$221 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$120 Wol.
1%
26°C
$49 Wol.
1%
27°C
$152 Wol.
1%
28°C
$475 Wol.
9%
29°C
$72 Wol.
25%
30°C
$144 Wol.
43%
31°C
$10 Wol.
19%
32°C
$38 Wol.
5%
33°C
$71 Wol.
2%
34°C or higher
$30 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA outlooks and ensemble model guidance for Metro Manila indicate daytime highs near 30–33°C on August 16, driven by the prevailing southwest monsoon (Habagat) that typically delivers scattered showers, thunderstorms, and persistent cloud cover during peak rainy-season conditions. These factors limit solar heating and cap extreme maxima, aligning trader consensus around the 29–31°C outcomes that together exceed 80% implied probability. Historical August averages of roughly 31°C provide climatological context, while short-term model runs show modest spread due to variable low-pressure influences and localized rainfall intensity; updated official forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria for this temperature-threshold market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,382Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA outlooks and ensemble model guidance for Metro Manila indicate daytime highs near 30–33°C on August 16, driven by the prevailing southwest monsoon (Habagat) that typically delivers scattered showers, thunderstorms, and persistent cloud cover during peak rainy-season conditions. These factors limit solar heating and cap extreme maxima, aligning trader consensus around the 29–31°C outcomes that together exceed 80% implied probability. Historical August averages of roughly 31°C provide climatological context, while short-term model runs show modest spread due to variable low-pressure influences and localized rainfall intensity; updated official forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria for this temperature-threshold market.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,382Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent PAGASA outlooks and ensemble model guidance for Metro Manila indicate daytime highs near 30–33°C on August 16, driven by the prevailing southwest monsoon (Habagat) that typically delivers scattered showers, thunderstorms, and persistent cloud cover during peak rainy-season conditions. These factors limit solar heating and cap extreme maxima, aligning trader consensus around the 29–31°C outcomes that together exceed 80% implied probability. Historical August averages of roughly 31°C provide climatological context, while short-term model runs show modest spread due to variable low-pressure influences and localized rainfall intensity; updated official forecasts over the next 48 hours will refine resolution criteria for this temperature-threshold market.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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