Recent official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila point to a southwest monsoon pattern delivering widespread cloud cover and frequent showers on August 15, which typically caps daytime maxima near 30–33 °C by limiting solar heating. Model guidance shows slight variations in timing and intensity of convection, creating the tight clustering around 30–32 °C outcomes visible in current market-implied odds. An emerging weak-to-moderate El Niño provides broader seasonal context of altered rainfall distribution but exerts minimal influence on this 48-hour window. Traders are monitoring the next PAGASA update and any shifts in steering flow that could reduce cloudiness and allow brief clearing to push readings toward 33 °C or hold them at 30 °C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Manila on August 15?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 15?
30°C 24%
31°C 24%
32°C 19%
29°C 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
6%
29°C
11%
30°C
24%
31°C
24%
32°C
19%
33°C
11%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
1%
30°C 24%
31°C 24%
32°C 19%
29°C 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
$44 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$44 Wol.
1%
27°C
$22 Wol.
<1%
28°C
$8 Wol.
6%
29°C
$0 Wol.
11%
30°C
$0 Wol.
24%
31°C
$0 Wol.
24%
32°C
$0 Wol.
19%
33°C
$0 Wol.
11%
34°C
$22 Wol.
1%
35°C or higher
$32 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila point to a southwest monsoon pattern delivering widespread cloud cover and frequent showers on August 15, which typically caps daytime maxima near 30–33 °C by limiting solar heating. Model guidance shows slight variations in timing and intensity of convection, creating the tight clustering around 30–32 °C outcomes visible in current market-implied odds. An emerging weak-to-moderate El Niño provides broader seasonal context of altered rainfall distribution but exerts minimal influence on this 48-hour window. Traders are monitoring the next PAGASA update and any shifts in steering flow that could reduce cloudiness and allow brief clearing to push readings toward 33 °C or hold them at 30 °C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Wolumen
$171Data zakończenia
Aug 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila point to a southwest monsoon pattern delivering widespread cloud cover and frequent showers on August 15, which typically caps daytime maxima near 30–33 °C by limiting solar heating. Model guidance shows slight variations in timing and intensity of convection, creating the tight clustering around 30–32 °C outcomes visible in current market-implied odds. An emerging weak-to-moderate El Niño provides broader seasonal context of altered rainfall distribution but exerts minimal influence on this 48-hour window. Traders are monitoring the next PAGASA update and any shifts in steering flow that could reduce cloudiness and allow brief clearing to push readings toward 33 °C or hold them at 30 °C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$171Data zakończenia
Aug 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila point to a southwest monsoon pattern delivering widespread cloud cover and frequent showers on August 15, which typically caps daytime maxima near 30–33 °C by limiting solar heating. Model guidance shows slight variations in timing and intensity of convection, creating the tight clustering around 30–32 °C outcomes visible in current market-implied odds. An emerging weak-to-moderate El Niño provides broader seasonal context of altered rainfall distribution but exerts minimal influence on this 48-hour window. Traders are monitoring the next PAGASA update and any shifts in steering flow that could reduce cloudiness and allow brief clearing to push readings toward 33 °C or hold them at 30 °C.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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