Current short-range model consensus from European forecasting centers points to a peak of 32–33°C in Amsterdam on August 13, with 32°C and 33°C together commanding nearly 70% market-implied probability. A stable high-pressure ridge and southerly advection of warmer continental air are sustaining daytime heating, while limited cloud cover and light winds enhance surface insolation. Ensemble spreads remain narrow at this lead time, but small shifts in the precise position of the ridge axis or timing of any weak frontal passage could tip the maximum by 1°C. Historical August extremes in the region rarely exceed 34°C, reinforcing why higher outcomes trade at single-digit odds. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points likely to refine trader positioning before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Amsterdam on August 13?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 13?
33°C 41%
32°C 30%
34°C 21%
31°C 6%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 13, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
2%
31°C
6%
32°C
30%
33°C
41%
34°C
21%
35°C
5%
36°C
2%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 41%
32°C 30%
34°C 21%
31°C 6%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 13, 2026
27°C or below
$697 Wol.
<1%
28°C
$163 Wol.
<1%
29°C
$51 Wol.
1%
30°C
$201 Wol.
2%
31°C
$526 Wol.
6%
32°C
$770 Wol.
30%
33°C
$1,297 Wol.
41%
34°C
$798 Wol.
21%
35°C
$290 Wol.
5%
36°C
$113 Wol.
2%
37°C or higher
$45 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range model consensus from European forecasting centers points to a peak of 32–33°C in Amsterdam on August 13, with 32°C and 33°C together commanding nearly 70% market-implied probability. A stable high-pressure ridge and southerly advection of warmer continental air are sustaining daytime heating, while limited cloud cover and light winds enhance surface insolation. Ensemble spreads remain narrow at this lead time, but small shifts in the precise position of the ridge axis or timing of any weak frontal passage could tip the maximum by 1°C. Historical August extremes in the region rarely exceed 34°C, reinforcing why higher outcomes trade at single-digit odds. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points likely to refine trader positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 11, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
Wolumen
$4,947Data zakończenia
Aug 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 1:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range model consensus from European forecasting centers points to a peak of 32–33°C in Amsterdam on August 13, with 32°C and 33°C together commanding nearly 70% market-implied probability. A stable high-pressure ridge and southerly advection of warmer continental air are sustaining daytime heating, while limited cloud cover and light winds enhance surface insolation. Ensemble spreads remain narrow at this lead time, but small shifts in the precise position of the ridge axis or timing of any weak frontal passage could tip the maximum by 1°C. Historical August extremes in the region rarely exceed 34°C, reinforcing why higher outcomes trade at single-digit odds. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points likely to refine trader positioning before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$4,947Data zakończenia
Aug 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 1:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range model consensus from European forecasting centers points to a peak of 32–33°C in Amsterdam on August 13, with 32°C and 33°C together commanding nearly 70% market-implied probability. A stable high-pressure ridge and southerly advection of warmer continental air are sustaining daytime heating, while limited cloud cover and light winds enhance surface insolation. Ensemble spreads remain narrow at this lead time, but small shifts in the precise position of the ridge axis or timing of any weak frontal passage could tip the maximum by 1°C. Historical August extremes in the region rarely exceed 34°C, reinforcing why higher outcomes trade at single-digit odds. Updated model runs and KNMI guidance over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points likely to refine trader positioning before resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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