Recent numerical weather prediction models from the Hong Kong Observatory and global centers indicate partly cloudy conditions with light northeasterly flow on August 11, supporting afternoon highs near 34–35°C amid typical summer humidity levels around 70–90%. This consensus, tempered by possible scattered showers, explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds rather than extremes. Above-normal seasonal temperatures and the urban heat island effect in Hong Kong further underpin trader positioning near historical August peaks, while model spreads on cloud cover and localized convection create the modest probabilities for 36°C or higher. Updated short-range forecasts and real-time observations from the Observatory will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 11?
35°C 35%
34°C 30%
36°C 17%
37°C 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 11, 2026
30°C or below
2%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C
9%
34°C
30%
35°C
35%
36°C
17%
37°C
14%
38°C
5%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
<1%
35°C 35%
34°C 30%
36°C 17%
37°C 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 11, 2026
30°C or below
$10 Wol.
2%
31°C
$12 Wol.
1%
32°C
$35 Wol.
1%
33°C
$0 Wol.
9%
34°C
$292 Wol.
30%
35°C
$35 Wol.
35%
36°C
$0 Wol.
17%
37°C
$156 Wol.
14%
38°C
$579 Wol.
5%
39°C
$12 Wol.
1%
40°C or higher
$12 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction models from the Hong Kong Observatory and global centers indicate partly cloudy conditions with light northeasterly flow on August 11, supporting afternoon highs near 34–35°C amid typical summer humidity levels around 70–90%. This consensus, tempered by possible scattered showers, explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds rather than extremes. Above-normal seasonal temperatures and the urban heat island effect in Hong Kong further underpin trader positioning near historical August peaks, while model spreads on cloud cover and localized convection create the modest probabilities for 36°C or higher. Updated short-range forecasts and real-time observations from the Observatory will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,143Data zakończenia
Aug 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent numerical weather prediction models from the Hong Kong Observatory and global centers indicate partly cloudy conditions with light northeasterly flow on August 11, supporting afternoon highs near 34–35°C amid typical summer humidity levels around 70–90%. This consensus, tempered by possible scattered showers, explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds rather than extremes. Above-normal seasonal temperatures and the urban heat island effect in Hong Kong further underpin trader positioning near historical August peaks, while model spreads on cloud cover and localized convection create the modest probabilities for 36°C or higher. Updated short-range forecasts and real-time observations from the Observatory will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$1,143Data zakończenia
Aug 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 9, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models from the Hong Kong Observatory and global centers indicate partly cloudy conditions with light northeasterly flow on August 11, supporting afternoon highs near 34–35°C amid typical summer humidity levels around 70–90%. This consensus, tempered by possible scattered showers, explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds rather than extremes. Above-normal seasonal temperatures and the urban heat island effect in Hong Kong further underpin trader positioning near historical August peaks, while model spreads on cloud cover and localized convection create the modest probabilities for 36°C or higher. Updated short-range forecasts and real-time observations from the Observatory will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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