Beijing’s midsummer subtropical monsoon regime typically sustains daytime highs near or above 30–32 °C through strong solar heating and urban heat-island amplification, supporting the market’s leading 64.5 % probability for 32 °C or higher on 13 August. Recent numerical weather prediction runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show an approaching mid-latitude trough and associated frontal rainfall expected to increase cloud cover and evaporative cooling, shifting consensus forecasts toward 26–27 °C highs. Traders appear to weigh lingering model spread and the possibility of delayed or lighter precipitation against climatological norms, keeping elevated-temperature outcomes dominant while assigning meaningful weight to the 30–31 °C range. Updated model cycles and official guidance ahead of the event will be key catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Beijing on August 13?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 13?
32°C or higher 60%
31°C 19%
30°C 12%
29°C 6%
NOWE
$13,449 Wol.
NOWE
$13,449 Wol.
Aug 13, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
3%
28°C
5%
29°C
6%
30°C
12%
31°C
19%
32°C or higher
60%
32°C or higher 60%
31°C 19%
30°C 12%
29°C 6%
NOWE
$13,449 Wol.
NOWE
$13,449 Wol.
Aug 13, 2026
22°C or below
$542 Wol.
<1%
23°C
$659 Wol.
<1%
24°C
$1,675 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$1,127 Wol.
1%
26°C
$1,158 Wol.
2%
27°C
$1,100 Wol.
3%
28°C
$1,478 Wol.
5%
29°C
$1,250 Wol.
6%
30°C
$844 Wol.
12%
31°C
$1,651 Wol.
19%
32°C or higher
$6,245 Wol.
60%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Beijing’s midsummer subtropical monsoon regime typically sustains daytime highs near or above 30–32 °C through strong solar heating and urban heat-island amplification, supporting the market’s leading 64.5 % probability for 32 °C or higher on 13 August. Recent numerical weather prediction runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show an approaching mid-latitude trough and associated frontal rainfall expected to increase cloud cover and evaporative cooling, shifting consensus forecasts toward 26–27 °C highs. Traders appear to weigh lingering model spread and the possibility of delayed or lighter precipitation against climatological norms, keeping elevated-temperature outcomes dominant while assigning meaningful weight to the 30–31 °C range. Updated model cycles and official guidance ahead of the event will be key catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Wolumen
$13,449Data zakończenia
Aug 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Beijing’s midsummer subtropical monsoon regime typically sustains daytime highs near or above 30–32 °C through strong solar heating and urban heat-island amplification, supporting the market’s leading 64.5 % probability for 32 °C or higher on 13 August. Recent numerical weather prediction runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show an approaching mid-latitude trough and associated frontal rainfall expected to increase cloud cover and evaporative cooling, shifting consensus forecasts toward 26–27 °C highs. Traders appear to weigh lingering model spread and the possibility of delayed or lighter precipitation against climatological norms, keeping elevated-temperature outcomes dominant while assigning meaningful weight to the 30–31 °C range. Updated model cycles and official guidance ahead of the event will be key catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$13,449Data zakończenia
Aug 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Beijing’s midsummer subtropical monsoon regime typically sustains daytime highs near or above 30–32 °C through strong solar heating and urban heat-island amplification, supporting the market’s leading 64.5 % probability for 32 °C or higher on 13 August. Recent numerical weather prediction runs from the China Meteorological Administration and global models show an approaching mid-latitude trough and associated frontal rainfall expected to increase cloud cover and evaporative cooling, shifting consensus forecasts toward 26–27 °C highs. Traders appear to weigh lingering model spread and the possibility of delayed or lighter precipitation against climatological norms, keeping elevated-temperature outcomes dominant while assigning meaningful weight to the 30–31 °C range. Updated model cycles and official guidance ahead of the event will be key catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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