The market for Manila's highest temperature on August 13 centers on 30–31°C as the clear leading outcomes (combined ~73% implied probability), driven by the active southwest monsoon (Habagat) that is delivering widespread cloud cover, frequent showers, and thunderstorms across Metro Manila. Official PAGASA outlooks for August 13 show a 26–32°C range with 60% rain probability, consistent with recent actual highs near 32°C amid suppressed daytime heating from persistent moisture and reduced insolation. Longer-term climatology for August places average highs near 31°C, but current monsoon conditions and model consensus favor the lower end of that band without significant breaks in cloudiness or tropical cyclone influence that could push readings to 33°C or above. Traders appear to be weighting these short-term atmospheric dynamics heavily, with only modest probability assigned to cooler 29°C or warmer 32°C scenarios pending any last-minute forecast shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Manila on August 13?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 13?
30°C 46%
31°C 29%
29°C 15%
32°C 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 13, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
5%
29°C
15%
30°C
46%
31°C
29%
32°C
7%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 46%
31°C 29%
29°C 15%
32°C 7%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 13, 2026
25°C or below
$33 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$98 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$60 Wol.
1%
28°C
$144 Wol.
5%
29°C
$771 Wol.
15%
30°C
$457 Wol.
46%
31°C
$145 Wol.
29%
32°C
$325 Wol.
7%
33°C
$583 Wol.
2%
34°C
$122 Wol.
1%
35°C or higher
$126 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market for Manila's highest temperature on August 13 centers on 30–31°C as the clear leading outcomes (combined ~73% implied probability), driven by the active southwest monsoon (Habagat) that is delivering widespread cloud cover, frequent showers, and thunderstorms across Metro Manila. Official PAGASA outlooks for August 13 show a 26–32°C range with 60% rain probability, consistent with recent actual highs near 32°C amid suppressed daytime heating from persistent moisture and reduced insolation. Longer-term climatology for August places average highs near 31°C, but current monsoon conditions and model consensus favor the lower end of that band without significant breaks in cloudiness or tropical cyclone influence that could push readings to 33°C or above. Traders appear to be weighting these short-term atmospheric dynamics heavily, with only modest probability assigned to cooler 29°C or warmer 32°C scenarios pending any last-minute forecast shifts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 11, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,864Data zakończenia
Aug 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market for Manila's highest temperature on August 13 centers on 30–31°C as the clear leading outcomes (combined ~73% implied probability), driven by the active southwest monsoon (Habagat) that is delivering widespread cloud cover, frequent showers, and thunderstorms across Metro Manila. Official PAGASA outlooks for August 13 show a 26–32°C range with 60% rain probability, consistent with recent actual highs near 32°C amid suppressed daytime heating from persistent moisture and reduced insolation. Longer-term climatology for August places average highs near 31°C, but current monsoon conditions and model consensus favor the lower end of that band without significant breaks in cloudiness or tropical cyclone influence that could push readings to 33°C or above. Traders appear to be weighting these short-term atmospheric dynamics heavily, with only modest probability assigned to cooler 29°C or warmer 32°C scenarios pending any last-minute forecast shifts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2,864Data zakończenia
Aug 13, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 11, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market for Manila's highest temperature on August 13 centers on 30–31°C as the clear leading outcomes (combined ~73% implied probability), driven by the active southwest monsoon (Habagat) that is delivering widespread cloud cover, frequent showers, and thunderstorms across Metro Manila. Official PAGASA outlooks for August 13 show a 26–32°C range with 60% rain probability, consistent with recent actual highs near 32°C amid suppressed daytime heating from persistent moisture and reduced insolation. Longer-term climatology for August places average highs near 31°C, but current monsoon conditions and model consensus favor the lower end of that band without significant breaks in cloudiness or tropical cyclone influence that could push readings to 33°C or above. Traders appear to be weighting these short-term atmospheric dynamics heavily, with only modest probability assigned to cooler 29°C or warmer 32°C scenarios pending any last-minute forecast shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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