Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a daytime maximum near 31°C for Tokyo on August 15, with possible afternoon showers that could limit surface heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. This aligns with the market's tight clustering around 29–31°C outcomes, reflecting typical late-summer conditions of high humidity, light winds, and urban heat retention that moderate extremes. Model consensus emphasizes modest instability and southeasterly flow, keeping temperatures close to seasonal normals of 30–31°C rather than allowing stronger insolation for higher peaks. Traders weigh these variables against the proximity to resolution, where updated short-range guidance could shift probabilities among the leading bins.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?
30°C 33%
31°C 25%
29°C 24%
32°C 10%
NOWE
$18,319 Wol.
NOWE
$18,319 Wol.
Aug 15, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
2%
28°C
7%
29°C
24%
30°C
33%
31°C
25%
32°C
10%
33°C
3%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 33%
31°C 25%
29°C 24%
32°C 10%
NOWE
$18,319 Wol.
NOWE
$18,319 Wol.
Aug 15, 2026
24°C or below
$488 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$557 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$1,040 Wol.
1%
27°C
$2,977 Wol.
2%
28°C
$1,401 Wol.
7%
29°C
$4,420 Wol.
24%
30°C
$2,107 Wol.
33%
31°C
$1,832 Wol.
25%
32°C
$1,185 Wol.
10%
33°C
$1,196 Wol.
3%
34°C or higher
$1,116 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a daytime maximum near 31°C for Tokyo on August 15, with possible afternoon showers that could limit surface heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. This aligns with the market's tight clustering around 29–31°C outcomes, reflecting typical late-summer conditions of high humidity, light winds, and urban heat retention that moderate extremes. Model consensus emphasizes modest instability and southeasterly flow, keeping temperatures close to seasonal normals of 30–31°C rather than allowing stronger insolation for higher peaks. Traders weigh these variables against the proximity to resolution, where updated short-range guidance could shift probabilities among the leading bins.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$18,319Data zakończenia
Aug 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a daytime maximum near 31°C for Tokyo on August 15, with possible afternoon showers that could limit surface heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. This aligns with the market's tight clustering around 29–31°C outcomes, reflecting typical late-summer conditions of high humidity, light winds, and urban heat retention that moderate extremes. Model consensus emphasizes modest instability and southeasterly flow, keeping temperatures close to seasonal normals of 30–31°C rather than allowing stronger insolation for higher peaks. Traders weigh these variables against the proximity to resolution, where updated short-range guidance could shift probabilities among the leading bins.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$18,319Data zakończenia
Aug 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a daytime maximum near 31°C for Tokyo on August 15, with possible afternoon showers that could limit surface heating through increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling. This aligns with the market's tight clustering around 29–31°C outcomes, reflecting typical late-summer conditions of high humidity, light winds, and urban heat retention that moderate extremes. Model consensus emphasizes modest instability and southeasterly flow, keeping temperatures close to seasonal normals of 30–31°C rather than allowing stronger insolation for higher peaks. Traders weigh these variables against the proximity to resolution, where updated short-range guidance could shift probabilities among the leading bins.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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