Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 32–33 °C because current ensemble forecasts and Hong Kong Observatory guidance indicate a daytime maximum in that narrow band for August 16 amid scattered showers and increased cloud cover. Recent moisture from broad low-pressure troughs over the South China Sea has elevated humidity and favored afternoon convection, which caps surface heating compared with the record 36.9 °C observed earlier in the month. Key differentiating variables include the precise timing and coverage of showers, steering flow strength, and boundary-layer mixing; small shifts in these can swing the peak by 1 °C. With market-implied odds nearly even between the two leading outcomes, traders are weighting the latest model runs and local observations that will arrive overnight.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?
32°C 39%
33°C 37%
34°C 12%
31°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
3%
31°C
10%
32°C
39%
33°C
37%
34°C
12%
35°C
3%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 39%
33°C 37%
34°C 12%
31°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
$877 Wol.
<1%
28°C
$175 Wol.
<1%
29°C
$180 Wol.
<1%
30°C
$676 Wol.
3%
31°C
$2,701 Wol.
10%
32°C
$737 Wol.
39%
33°C
$1,037 Wol.
37%
34°C
$598 Wol.
12%
35°C
$318 Wol.
3%
36°C
$591 Wol.
1%
37°C or higher
$287 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 32–33 °C because current ensemble forecasts and Hong Kong Observatory guidance indicate a daytime maximum in that narrow band for August 16 amid scattered showers and increased cloud cover. Recent moisture from broad low-pressure troughs over the South China Sea has elevated humidity and favored afternoon convection, which caps surface heating compared with the record 36.9 °C observed earlier in the month. Key differentiating variables include the precise timing and coverage of showers, steering flow strength, and boundary-layer mixing; small shifts in these can swing the peak by 1 °C. With market-implied odds nearly even between the two leading outcomes, traders are weighting the latest model runs and local observations that will arrive overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$8,178Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 32–33 °C because current ensemble forecasts and Hong Kong Observatory guidance indicate a daytime maximum in that narrow band for August 16 amid scattered showers and increased cloud cover. Recent moisture from broad low-pressure troughs over the South China Sea has elevated humidity and favored afternoon convection, which caps surface heating compared with the record 36.9 °C observed earlier in the month. Key differentiating variables include the precise timing and coverage of showers, steering flow strength, and boundary-layer mixing; small shifts in these can swing the peak by 1 °C. With market-implied odds nearly even between the two leading outcomes, traders are weighting the latest model runs and local observations that will arrive overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$8,178Data zakończenia
Aug 16, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 32–33 °C because current ensemble forecasts and Hong Kong Observatory guidance indicate a daytime maximum in that narrow band for August 16 amid scattered showers and increased cloud cover. Recent moisture from broad low-pressure troughs over the South China Sea has elevated humidity and favored afternoon convection, which caps surface heating compared with the record 36.9 °C observed earlier in the month. Key differentiating variables include the precise timing and coverage of showers, steering flow strength, and boundary-layer mixing; small shifts in these can swing the peak by 1 °C. With market-implied odds nearly even between the two leading outcomes, traders are weighting the latest model runs and local observations that will arrive overnight.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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