Recent Korea Meteorological Administration short-range guidance for August 15 projects a daytime maximum near 32 °C in the Seoul-Incheon area under mostly cloudy conditions and a 30 % chance of showers, following highs of 32–34 °C on the preceding two days. Coastal moderation from the Yellow Sea and increasing low-level moisture favor modest suppression of peak temperatures relative to early-August heatwave conditions. Ensemble spread and the timing of any convective cells introduce uncertainty that keeps market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 29–31 °C. Updated model runs and afternoon observations on August 14 will clarify whether cloud cover or localized rainfall trims the high below 32 °C.