The market-implied odds favor 24°C or 23°C as Tokyo’s minimum temperature on August 17 because the strengthened Pacific High continues to dominate, sustaining above-normal warmth with typical overnight lows near 24°C amid high humidity and limited nocturnal cooling. Recent JMA seasonal outlooks and AccuWeather guidance align on this range for mid-August, where urban heat retention and light winds reduce radiative cooling while any increase in cloud cover or brief showers could nudge the minimum a degree lower. Traders weigh these factors against model spread in short-range forecasts, recognizing that small shifts in steering flow or boundary-layer moisture will decide between the two leading outcomes as the date approaches.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 17?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 17?
25°C 41%
24°C 41%
23°C 27%
22°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 17, 2026
19°C or below
1%
20°C
7%
21°C
3%
22°C
10%
23°C
39%
24°C
41%
25°C
24%
26°C
3%
27°C
6%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 41%
24°C 41%
23°C 27%
22°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 17, 2026
19°C or below
$37 Wol.
1%
20°C
$10 Wol.
7%
21°C
$83 Wol.
3%
22°C
$120 Wol.
10%
23°C
$126 Wol.
39%
24°C
$118 Wol.
41%
25°C
$378 Wol.
24%
26°C
$93 Wol.
3%
27°C
$10 Wol.
6%
28°C
$37 Wol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$47 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market-implied odds favor 24°C or 23°C as Tokyo’s minimum temperature on August 17 because the strengthened Pacific High continues to dominate, sustaining above-normal warmth with typical overnight lows near 24°C amid high humidity and limited nocturnal cooling. Recent JMA seasonal outlooks and AccuWeather guidance align on this range for mid-August, where urban heat retention and light winds reduce radiative cooling while any increase in cloud cover or brief showers could nudge the minimum a degree lower. Traders weigh these factors against model spread in short-range forecasts, recognizing that small shifts in steering flow or boundary-layer moisture will decide between the two leading outcomes as the date approaches.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,061Data zakończenia
Aug 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market-implied odds favor 24°C or 23°C as Tokyo’s minimum temperature on August 17 because the strengthened Pacific High continues to dominate, sustaining above-normal warmth with typical overnight lows near 24°C amid high humidity and limited nocturnal cooling. Recent JMA seasonal outlooks and AccuWeather guidance align on this range for mid-August, where urban heat retention and light winds reduce radiative cooling while any increase in cloud cover or brief showers could nudge the minimum a degree lower. Traders weigh these factors against model spread in short-range forecasts, recognizing that small shifts in steering flow or boundary-layer moisture will decide between the two leading outcomes as the date approaches.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,061Data zakończenia
Aug 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied odds favor 24°C or 23°C as Tokyo’s minimum temperature on August 17 because the strengthened Pacific High continues to dominate, sustaining above-normal warmth with typical overnight lows near 24°C amid high humidity and limited nocturnal cooling. Recent JMA seasonal outlooks and AccuWeather guidance align on this range for mid-August, where urban heat retention and light winds reduce radiative cooling while any increase in cloud cover or brief showers could nudge the minimum a degree lower. Traders weigh these factors against model spread in short-range forecasts, recognizing that small shifts in steering flow or boundary-layer moisture will decide between the two leading outcomes as the date approaches.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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