A strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies now exceeding +2.0°C and forecast to intensify further through late 2026, stands as the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds for August global temperature anomalies near 1.42–1.45°C or above. Official monitoring from NOAA and other agencies shows July 2026 already at 1.18°C above the 20th-century baseline, consistent with the lagged warming influence of a developing strong El Niño event amid record ocean heat content. Recent model runs highlight potential for additional positive anomalies from reduced cloud cover and atmospheric circulation shifts, though natural variability and any rapid transition signals could moderate the final monthly value. With probabilities clustered tightly across 1.30–1.45°C brackets, traders are weighting the balance between confirmed El Niño-driven warmth and uncertainty in exact August realization.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
>1.45ºC 42%
1.34–1.37ºC 41%
1.30–1.33ºC 40%
1.42–1.45ºC 40%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
25%
1.30–1.33ºC
40%
1.34–1.37ºC
41%
1.38–1.41ºC
39%
1.42–1.45ºC
40%
>1.45ºC
42%
>1.45ºC 42%
1.34–1.37ºC 41%
1.30–1.33ºC 40%
1.42–1.45ºC 40%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 1, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Wol.
25%
1.30–1.33ºC
$0 Wol.
40%
1.34–1.37ºC
$0 Wol.
41%
1.38–1.41ºC
$0 Wol.
39%
1.42–1.45ºC
$0 Wol.
40%
>1.45ºC
$0 Wol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies now exceeding +2.0°C and forecast to intensify further through late 2026, stands as the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds for August global temperature anomalies near 1.42–1.45°C or above. Official monitoring from NOAA and other agencies shows July 2026 already at 1.18°C above the 20th-century baseline, consistent with the lagged warming influence of a developing strong El Niño event amid record ocean heat content. Recent model runs highlight potential for additional positive anomalies from reduced cloud cover and atmospheric circulation shifts, though natural variability and any rapid transition signals could moderate the final monthly value. With probabilities clustered tightly across 1.30–1.45°C brackets, traders are weighting the balance between confirmed El Niño-driven warmth and uncertainty in exact August realization.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies now exceeding +2.0°C and forecast to intensify further through late 2026, stands as the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds for August global temperature anomalies near 1.42–1.45°C or above. Official monitoring from NOAA and other agencies shows July 2026 already at 1.18°C above the 20th-century baseline, consistent with the lagged warming influence of a developing strong El Niño event amid record ocean heat content. Recent model runs highlight potential for additional positive anomalies from reduced cloud cover and atmospheric circulation shifts, though natural variability and any rapid transition signals could moderate the final monthly value. With probabilities clustered tightly across 1.30–1.45°C brackets, traders are weighting the balance between confirmed El Niño-driven warmth and uncertainty in exact August realization.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Wolumen
$0Data zakończenia
Sep 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening El Niño, with Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies now exceeding +2.0°C and forecast to intensify further through late 2026, stands as the dominant driver elevating trader-implied odds for August global temperature anomalies near 1.42–1.45°C or above. Official monitoring from NOAA and other agencies shows July 2026 already at 1.18°C above the 20th-century baseline, consistent with the lagged warming influence of a developing strong El Niño event amid record ocean heat content. Recent model runs highlight potential for additional positive anomalies from reduced cloud cover and atmospheric circulation shifts, though natural variability and any rapid transition signals could moderate the final monthly value. With probabilities clustered tightly across 1.30–1.45°C brackets, traders are weighting the balance between confirmed El Niño-driven warmth and uncertainty in exact August realization.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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