SpaceX’s Starship program has completed just two launches reaching space in 2026 to date, both suborbital, keeping the test cadence slow amid iterative hardware and software refinements. Trader consensus favoring 5-6 total flights for the year reflects this measured pace, recent static-fire successes, and the pending September 22 orbital attempt for Flight 14 that would mark the first sustained orbit plus Starlink V3 deployment. Regulatory approvals, engine relight reliability, and heat-shield performance remain key variables that could enable a modest ramp or trigger further delays, consistent with the pattern of roughly five flights in 2025.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIle SpaceX Starship wystartuje w kosmosie w 2026 roku?
Ile SpaceX Starship wystartuje w kosmosie w 2026 roku?
5-6 45%
<5 42%
11-12 2.7%
>16 1.1%
$513,062 Wol.
$513,062 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
36%
5-6
45%
7-8
1%
9-10
<1%
11-12
3%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 45%
<5 42%
11-12 2.7%
>16 1.1%
$513,062 Wol.
$513,062 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
<5
$102,744 Wol.
36%
5-6
$117,329 Wol.
45%
7-8
$161,600 Wol.
1%
9-10
$63,389 Wol.
<1%
11-12
$10,320 Wol.
3%
13-14
$11,020 Wol.
<1%
15-16
$32,047 Wol.
<1%
>16
$14,613 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX’s Starship program has completed just two launches reaching space in 2026 to date, both suborbital, keeping the test cadence slow amid iterative hardware and software refinements. Trader consensus favoring 5-6 total flights for the year reflects this measured pace, recent static-fire successes, and the pending September 22 orbital attempt for Flight 14 that would mark the first sustained orbit plus Starlink V3 deployment. Regulatory approvals, engine relight reliability, and heat-shield performance remain key variables that could enable a modest ramp or trigger further delays, consistent with the pattern of roughly five flights in 2025.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
Wolumen
$513,062Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX’s Starship program has completed just two launches reaching space in 2026 to date, both suborbital, keeping the test cadence slow amid iterative hardware and software refinements. Trader consensus favoring 5-6 total flights for the year reflects this measured pace, recent static-fire successes, and the pending September 22 orbital attempt for Flight 14 that would mark the first sustained orbit plus Starlink V3 deployment. Regulatory approvals, engine relight reliability, and heat-shield performance remain key variables that could enable a modest ramp or trigger further delays, consistent with the pattern of roughly five flights in 2025.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$513,062Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX’s Starship program has completed just two launches reaching space in 2026 to date, both suborbital, keeping the test cadence slow amid iterative hardware and software refinements. Trader consensus favoring 5-6 total flights for the year reflects this measured pace, recent static-fire successes, and the pending September 22 orbital attempt for Flight 14 that would mark the first sustained orbit plus Starlink V3 deployment. Regulatory approvals, engine relight reliability, and heat-shield performance remain key variables that could enable a modest ramp or trigger further delays, consistent with the pattern of roughly five flights in 2025.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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