NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry monitoring system show no tracked asteroids or comets on collision paths capable of releasing 1 megaton TNT-equivalent energy in 2026, underpinning the 98.5% market-implied probability of “No.” Continuous optical surveys and orbital refinements cover the vast majority of objects above roughly 140 meters, while historical flux models place megaton-scale airbursts at roughly once per few centuries. Small bolides detected this year remain well below threshold, consistent with the 2013 Chelyabinsk event at 0.44 megatons. Residual uncertainty stems from possible undetected meter- to decameter-class objects on steep incoming trajectories, though expanding sensor networks continue to shrink that window ahead of year-end resolution.