NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and the European Space Agency's risk list show no tracked asteroids with non-zero impact probability for 2026, eliminating concerns over cataloged near-Earth objects capable of a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent airburst. Trader consensus prices "No" at 69%, aligning with historical bolide frequencies where events of this scale—roughly equivalent to a 4-meter stony meteoroid—occur globally about every 1–2 years based on infrasound analyses. A notable surge in large fireballs during Q1 2026, doubling typical rates per American Meteor Society data with standout events like the March 21 Southeast Texas bolide, has elevated the 31% "Yes" implied probability amid peak fireball season. Ongoing CNEOS monitoring of unpredicted small meteoroids will continue shaping odds through year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$300,045 Wol.
$300,045 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$300,045 Wol.
$300,045 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and the European Space Agency's risk list show no tracked asteroids with non-zero impact probability for 2026, eliminating concerns over cataloged near-Earth objects capable of a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent airburst. Trader consensus prices "No" at 69%, aligning with historical bolide frequencies where events of this scale—roughly equivalent to a 4-meter stony meteoroid—occur globally about every 1–2 years based on infrasound analyses. A notable surge in large fireballs during Q1 2026, doubling typical rates per American Meteor Society data with standout events like the March 21 Southeast Texas bolide, has elevated the 31% "Yes" implied probability amid peak fireball season. Ongoing CNEOS monitoring of unpredicted small meteoroids will continue shaping odds through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Wolumen
$300,045Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and the European Space Agency's risk list show no tracked asteroids with non-zero impact probability for 2026, eliminating concerns over cataloged near-Earth objects capable of a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent airburst. Trader consensus prices "No" at 69%, aligning with historical bolide frequencies where events of this scale—roughly equivalent to a 4-meter stony meteoroid—occur globally about every 1–2 years based on infrasound analyses. A notable surge in large fireballs during Q1 2026, doubling typical rates per American Meteor Society data with standout events like the March 21 Southeast Texas bolide, has elevated the 31% "Yes" implied probability amid peak fireball season. Ongoing CNEOS monitoring of unpredicted small meteoroids will continue shaping odds through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Wolumen
$300,045Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system and the European Space Agency's risk list show no tracked asteroids with non-zero impact probability for 2026, eliminating concerns over cataloged near-Earth objects capable of a 5-kiloton TNT-equivalent airburst. Trader consensus prices "No" at 69%, aligning with historical bolide frequencies where events of this scale—roughly equivalent to a 4-meter stony meteoroid—occur globally about every 1–2 years based on infrasound analyses. A notable surge in large fireballs during Q1 2026, doubling typical rates per American Meteor Society data with standout events like the March 21 Southeast Texas bolide, has elevated the 31% "Yes" implied probability amid peak fireball season. Ongoing CNEOS monitoring of unpredicted small meteoroids will continue shaping odds through year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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