NOAA’s August 2026 update maintains a below-normal Atlantic season forecast, citing ongoing El Niño conditions that favor elevated vertical wind shear and reduced activity, with only a 5% chance of an above-normal outcome. The agency now projects 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November period, well below the 1991–2020 averages. As of mid-August, just three weak tropical storms have formed and none have reached hurricane strength. Colorado State University similarly anticipates only one major hurricane basin-wide and below-average U.S. landfall odds. These conditions, combined with the short remaining window before the season’s end, support trader consensus that the probability of a Category 4 (130+ mph sustained winds) making U.S. landfall before 2027 remains low.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16% szansa
$340,136 Wol.
$340,136 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
16% szansa
$340,136 Wol.
$340,136 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s August 2026 update maintains a below-normal Atlantic season forecast, citing ongoing El Niño conditions that favor elevated vertical wind shear and reduced activity, with only a 5% chance of an above-normal outcome. The agency now projects 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November period, well below the 1991–2020 averages. As of mid-August, just three weak tropical storms have formed and none have reached hurricane strength. Colorado State University similarly anticipates only one major hurricane basin-wide and below-average U.S. landfall odds. These conditions, combined with the short remaining window before the season’s end, support trader consensus that the probability of a Category 4 (130+ mph sustained winds) making U.S. landfall before 2027 remains low.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$340,136Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s August 2026 update maintains a below-normal Atlantic season forecast, citing ongoing El Niño conditions that favor elevated vertical wind shear and reduced activity, with only a 5% chance of an above-normal outcome. The agency now projects 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November period, well below the 1991–2020 averages. As of mid-August, just three weak tropical storms have formed and none have reached hurricane strength. Colorado State University similarly anticipates only one major hurricane basin-wide and below-average U.S. landfall odds. These conditions, combined with the short remaining window before the season’s end, support trader consensus that the probability of a Category 4 (130+ mph sustained winds) making U.S. landfall before 2027 remains low.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Wolumen
$340,136Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s August 2026 update maintains a below-normal Atlantic season forecast, citing ongoing El Niño conditions that favor elevated vertical wind shear and reduced activity, with only a 5% chance of an above-normal outcome. The agency now projects 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+) for the full June–November period, well below the 1991–2020 averages. As of mid-August, just three weak tropical storms have formed and none have reached hurricane strength. Colorado State University similarly anticipates only one major hurricane basin-wide and below-average U.S. landfall odds. These conditions, combined with the short remaining window before the season’s end, support trader consensus that the probability of a Category 4 (130+ mph sustained winds) making U.S. landfall before 2027 remains low.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania