NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic season project below-normal activity through November, citing developing El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Updated August guidance calls for just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale), with well below-average U.S. major-hurricane landfall probabilities around 16%. Only three weak tropical storms have formed so far, none reaching hurricane strength by mid-August. With peak season imminent yet overall basin conditions unfavorable, the odds of a rare Category 5 landfall before year-end remain low despite inherent forecast uncertainty in late-season steering patterns.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
12% szansa
$139,433 Wol.
$139,433 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
12% szansa
$139,433 Wol.
$139,433 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic season project below-normal activity through November, citing developing El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Updated August guidance calls for just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale), with well below-average U.S. major-hurricane landfall probabilities around 16%. Only three weak tropical storms have formed so far, none reaching hurricane strength by mid-August. With peak season imminent yet overall basin conditions unfavorable, the odds of a rare Category 5 landfall before year-end remain low despite inherent forecast uncertainty in late-season steering patterns.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$139,433Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic season project below-normal activity through November, citing developing El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Updated August guidance calls for just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale), with well below-average U.S. major-hurricane landfall probabilities around 16%. Only three weak tropical storms have formed so far, none reaching hurricane strength by mid-August. With peak season imminent yet overall basin conditions unfavorable, the odds of a rare Category 5 landfall before year-end remain low despite inherent forecast uncertainty in late-season steering patterns.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Wolumen
$139,433Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA and Colorado State University forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic season project below-normal activity through November, citing developing El Niño conditions that increase vertical wind shear and suppress intensification. Updated August guidance calls for just 2–6 hurricanes and 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale), with well below-average U.S. major-hurricane landfall probabilities around 16%. Only three weak tropical storms have formed so far, none reaching hurricane strength by mid-August. With peak season imminent yet overall basin conditions unfavorable, the odds of a rare Category 5 landfall before year-end remain low despite inherent forecast uncertainty in late-season steering patterns.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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