Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to zero or one large eruption (VEI ≥4) in 2026, reflecting the low historical baseline of zero to two such events per year on average. A VEI 4 requires ejection of at least 0.1 km³ of tephra, a threshold met infrequently even among the dozens of volcanoes under continuous Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring. No confirmed VEI ≥4 events have occurred through early May 2026, mirroring the complete absence recorded in 2025 despite widespread unrest at sites such as Semeru, Kīlauea, and Popocatépetl. Ongoing activity remains limited to smaller explosive or effusive episodes, and resolution hinges on whether any restless system escalates before year-end. New weekly reports from monitoring agencies could shift odds if seismic or deformation data indicate rapid pressurization.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIle dużych erupcji wulkanów (VEI ≥4) w 2026 roku?
Ile dużych erupcji wulkanów (VEI ≥4) w 2026 roku?
0 60%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 1.4%
$1,078,726 Wol.
$1,078,726 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
60%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 60%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 1.4%
$1,078,726 Wol.
$1,078,726 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$477,303 Wol.
60%
1
$260,191 Wol.
35%
2
$32,241 Wol.
4%
3
$26,075 Wol.
1%
4
$24,441 Wol.
<1%
5+
$258,475 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to zero or one large eruption (VEI ≥4) in 2026, reflecting the low historical baseline of zero to two such events per year on average. A VEI 4 requires ejection of at least 0.1 km³ of tephra, a threshold met infrequently even among the dozens of volcanoes under continuous Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring. No confirmed VEI ≥4 events have occurred through early May 2026, mirroring the complete absence recorded in 2025 despite widespread unrest at sites such as Semeru, Kīlauea, and Popocatépetl. Ongoing activity remains limited to smaller explosive or effusive episodes, and resolution hinges on whether any restless system escalates before year-end. New weekly reports from monitoring agencies could shift odds if seismic or deformation data indicate rapid pressurization.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,078,726Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to zero or one large eruption (VEI ≥4) in 2026, reflecting the low historical baseline of zero to two such events per year on average. A VEI 4 requires ejection of at least 0.1 km³ of tephra, a threshold met infrequently even among the dozens of volcanoes under continuous Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring. No confirmed VEI ≥4 events have occurred through early May 2026, mirroring the complete absence recorded in 2025 despite widespread unrest at sites such as Semeru, Kīlauea, and Popocatépetl. Ongoing activity remains limited to smaller explosive or effusive episodes, and resolution hinges on whether any restless system escalates before year-end. New weekly reports from monitoring agencies could shift odds if seismic or deformation data indicate rapid pressurization.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,078,726Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to zero or one large eruption (VEI ≥4) in 2026, reflecting the low historical baseline of zero to two such events per year on average. A VEI 4 requires ejection of at least 0.1 km³ of tephra, a threshold met infrequently even among the dozens of volcanoes under continuous Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program monitoring. No confirmed VEI ≥4 events have occurred through early May 2026, mirroring the complete absence recorded in 2025 despite widespread unrest at sites such as Semeru, Kīlauea, and Popocatépetl. Ongoing activity remains limited to smaller explosive or effusive episodes, and resolution hinges on whether any restless system escalates before year-end. New weekly reports from monitoring agencies could shift odds if seismic or deformation data indicate rapid pressurization.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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