Global Volcanism Program data through mid-2026 show 47 confirmed eruptions across 47 volcanoes, with the vast majority at VEI 2 or below and no confirmed VEI ≥4 events recorded to date. This scarcity aligns with historical patterns in which such explosive eruptions occur infrequently, often zero to two times per year on average, and explains the market's strong 58.5% implied probability for zero occurrences. Ongoing USGS and Smithsonian monitoring indicates mostly continuing low-intensity activity at sites like Sakurajima and Fuego, with no new unrest signals or model runs pointing to imminent large-magnitude events. Traders appear to weigh the remaining months of 2026 against these baselines and the typical absence of rapid escalations to VEI 4 thresholds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIle dużych erupcji wulkanów (VEI ≥4) w 2026 roku?
Ile dużych erupcji wulkanów (VEI ≥4) w 2026 roku?
0 67%
1 19%
2 3.6%
5+ <1%
$1,156,063 Wol.
$1,156,063 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
58%
1
19%
2
4%
3
1%
4
1%
5+
1%
0 67%
1 19%
2 3.6%
5+ <1%
$1,156,063 Wol.
$1,156,063 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$499,082 Wol.
58%
1
$273,925 Wol.
19%
2
$40,872 Wol.
4%
3
$31,654 Wol.
1%
4
$35,005 Wol.
1%
5+
$275,525 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Global Volcanism Program data through mid-2026 show 47 confirmed eruptions across 47 volcanoes, with the vast majority at VEI 2 or below and no confirmed VEI ≥4 events recorded to date. This scarcity aligns with historical patterns in which such explosive eruptions occur infrequently, often zero to two times per year on average, and explains the market's strong 58.5% implied probability for zero occurrences. Ongoing USGS and Smithsonian monitoring indicates mostly continuing low-intensity activity at sites like Sakurajima and Fuego, with no new unrest signals or model runs pointing to imminent large-magnitude events. Traders appear to weigh the remaining months of 2026 against these baselines and the typical absence of rapid escalations to VEI 4 thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,156,063Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Global Volcanism Program data through mid-2026 show 47 confirmed eruptions across 47 volcanoes, with the vast majority at VEI 2 or below and no confirmed VEI ≥4 events recorded to date. This scarcity aligns with historical patterns in which such explosive eruptions occur infrequently, often zero to two times per year on average, and explains the market's strong 58.5% implied probability for zero occurrences. Ongoing USGS and Smithsonian monitoring indicates mostly continuing low-intensity activity at sites like Sakurajima and Fuego, with no new unrest signals or model runs pointing to imminent large-magnitude events. Traders appear to weigh the remaining months of 2026 against these baselines and the typical absence of rapid escalations to VEI 4 thresholds.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,156,063Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Global Volcanism Program data through mid-2026 show 47 confirmed eruptions across 47 volcanoes, with the vast majority at VEI 2 or below and no confirmed VEI ≥4 events recorded to date. This scarcity aligns with historical patterns in which such explosive eruptions occur infrequently, often zero to two times per year on average, and explains the market's strong 58.5% implied probability for zero occurrences. Ongoing USGS and Smithsonian monitoring indicates mostly continuing low-intensity activity at sites like Sakurajima and Fuego, with no new unrest signals or model runs pointing to imminent large-magnitude events. Traders appear to weigh the remaining months of 2026 against these baselines and the typical absence of rapid escalations to VEI 4 thresholds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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