Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects overwhelming geophysical evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes are impossible, as they would require fault ruptures spanning thousands of kilometers—far exceeding known tectonic plate boundaries—with the largest recorded event remaining the 1960 Chile quake at magnitude 9.5. Global seismic monitoring shows no magnitude 9.0+ events in 2024–2026, with recent activity limited to mid-sized quakes below magnitude 6.0 as of mid-May 2026. With under eight months until resolution, the short timeframe further bolsters the 95.3% implied probability of "No." Realistic shifts would demand an unprecedented mega-thrust rupture defying current fault mechanics, though USGS real-time data updates could prompt minor adjustments if anomalous strain accumulates on major subduction zones.