Scientific consensus holds that a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake cannot occur because earthquake magnitude scales directly with fault rupture length, and no known fault on Earth is sufficiently extensive—USGS assessments note that such an event would require a rupture spanning much of the planet. The largest reliably recorded quake reached only 9.5 in Chile in 1960 along a roughly 1,000-mile subduction zone segment. With the market resolving at the end of 2026 and no shifts in observational data or modeling from agencies like the USGS, traders assign overwhelming probability to "No." While revised fault mechanics or an unprecedented multi-trench rupture remain theoretically conceivable, these scenarios lack supporting evidence and would not plausibly materialize in the remaining timeframe.