USGS data establish that magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquakes cannot occur because they would require fault ruptures spanning most of Earth's circumference, far exceeding any known tectonic boundary. The agency’s assessments cite the 1960 Valdivia event at 9.5 as the historical maximum on a roughly 1,000-mile fault, with each full magnitude step releasing about 32 times more energy. Continuous global seismic monitoring through 2026 shows no escalation toward such extremes, reinforcing trader consensus around the 98.8% “No” probability. While an unforeseen shift in plate dynamics or measurement revision remains theoretically possible before 2027, current geophysical models place that likelihood near zero.