The rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes, which occur globally only one to three times per century based on subduction zone recurrence intervals and USGS historical records, drives the 92.8% market-implied probability against such an event before 2027. The most recent was the 2011 Tohoku quake, and current seismic monitoring shows no precursors or elevated activity in high-risk zones like Cascadia or the Japan Trench that would indicate an imminent megathrust rupture. While long-term probabilities exist for regions overdue on paleoseismic timescales, the brief remaining window and lack of short-term forecasting signals reinforce trader consensus. An unexpected full-margin event remains possible but statistically unlikely without new observational data from agencies like the USGS.