**Latest forecasts position 13–15°C as the most probable range for Buenos Aires’ daily maximum on August 17, 2026.** Winter conditions in the Southern Hemisphere keep the city under the influence of cooler maritime air from the South Atlantic, with typical August highs averaging near 15–17°C but often moderated by cloud cover, light rain, or easterly flows. Recent model guidance, including outputs consistent with 14°C highs and 10°C lows plus measurable precipitation, aligns closely with the market’s heaviest weighting on 14°C (43.5 %). Slightly lower readings around 13°C gain support if a modest cold-air intrusion or increased cloudiness materializes, while 15°C remains viable under clearer or warmer advection scenarios. These probabilities reflect aggregated trader assessment of ensemble spread in numerical weather prediction, where small shifts in frontal timing or boundary-layer moisture can readily move the outcome within the narrow 12–16°C band. No major blocking patterns or extreme anomalies are indicated in current guidance, keeping resolution centered on near-climatological values.