Official Korea Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble models point to a daytime maximum near 30°C in the Seoul-Incheon area on August 16, with scattered showers expected to limit full solar heating and introduce modest cooling. Persistent summer humidity and easterly flow maintain baseline warmth consistent with seasonal norms of 29–31°C, yet the 60% precipitation probability creates uncertainty around whether the peak will reach or fall short of that threshold. Traders appear to weigh these dynamics by favoring the 28–29°C outcomes, reflecting how cloud cover and rain timing can suppress observed highs relative to clear-sky model runs. Updated short-range forecasts and any late adjustments to steering patterns will likely drive the final market resolution.