Record low 2026 winter maximum extent of 13.76–14.29 million square kilometers has left thinner, more vulnerable ice entering the melt season, with July 30 extent at 6.62 million square kilometers—14 percent below the 1991–2020 median—and early August values near 6.2 million square kilometers. This baseline, combined with ongoing above-average Arctic temperatures and marginal sea ice retreat, supports trader clustering around 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers for the September minimum. Key variables include late-summer weather patterns that could accelerate or slow melt, regional ice thickness distributions, and model consensus on remaining volume loss before the annual minimum.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 28.1%
4.2-4.4m sq km 25.0%
4.6-4.8m sq km 18.7%
4.0-4.2m sq km 9.2%
$66,245 Wol.
$66,245 Wol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
11%
4.0-4.2m sq km
9%
4.2-4.4m sq km
25%
4.4-4.6m sq km
28%
4.6-4.8m sq km
19%
4.8-5m sq km
1%
5m+ sq km
2%
4.4-4.6m sq km 28.1%
4.2-4.4m sq km 25.0%
4.6-4.8m sq km 18.7%
4.0-4.2m sq km 9.2%
$66,245 Wol.
$66,245 Wol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$30,184 Wol.
11%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$6,472 Wol.
9%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$2,798 Wol.
25%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,035 Wol.
28%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$6,593 Wol.
19%
4.8-5m sq km
$2,783 Wol.
1%
5m+ sq km
$14,380 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record low 2026 winter maximum extent of 13.76–14.29 million square kilometers has left thinner, more vulnerable ice entering the melt season, with July 30 extent at 6.62 million square kilometers—14 percent below the 1991–2020 median—and early August values near 6.2 million square kilometers. This baseline, combined with ongoing above-average Arctic temperatures and marginal sea ice retreat, supports trader clustering around 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers for the September minimum. Key variables include late-summer weather patterns that could accelerate or slow melt, regional ice thickness distributions, and model consensus on remaining volume loss before the annual minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$66,245Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record low 2026 winter maximum extent of 13.76–14.29 million square kilometers has left thinner, more vulnerable ice entering the melt season, with July 30 extent at 6.62 million square kilometers—14 percent below the 1991–2020 median—and early August values near 6.2 million square kilometers. This baseline, combined with ongoing above-average Arctic temperatures and marginal sea ice retreat, supports trader clustering around 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers for the September minimum. Key variables include late-summer weather patterns that could accelerate or slow melt, regional ice thickness distributions, and model consensus on remaining volume loss before the annual minimum.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Wolumen
$66,245Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record low 2026 winter maximum extent of 13.76–14.29 million square kilometers has left thinner, more vulnerable ice entering the melt season, with July 30 extent at 6.62 million square kilometers—14 percent below the 1991–2020 median—and early August values near 6.2 million square kilometers. This baseline, combined with ongoing above-average Arctic temperatures and marginal sea ice retreat, supports trader clustering around 4.2–4.6 million square kilometers for the September minimum. Key variables include late-summer weather patterns that could accelerate or slow melt, regional ice thickness distributions, and model consensus on remaining volume loss before the annual minimum.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania