Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 57.5% probability for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer (August–October 2026), driven by the record-low winter maximum of 14.28 million square kilometers reached on March 15, 2026—the lowest in the 48-year NSIDC satellite record and 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981–2010 average. This poor preconditioning, marked by thin ice, suppressed volume (April 2026 around 18,500 cubic kilometers), and early melt deficits like the second-lowest mid-April extent, signals high vulnerability to rapid summer melt amid warming air temperatures and potential El Niño influences. NOAA seasonal forecasts and ongoing NSIDC monitoring highlight below-average spring extent, though atmospheric patterns could moderate loss; June Sea Ice Outlook updates will refine model consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 57%
4.0-4.2m sq km 12.9%
4.2-4.4m sq km 9.1%
4.4-4.6m sq km 8.2%
$48,245 Wol.
$48,245 Wol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
13%
4.2-4.4m sq km
9%
4.4-4.6m sq km
8%
4.6-4.8m sq km
5%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
7%
<4m sq km 57%
4.0-4.2m sq km 12.9%
4.2-4.4m sq km 9.1%
4.4-4.6m sq km 8.2%
$48,245 Wol.
$48,245 Wol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$25,052 Wol.
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$3,335 Wol.
13%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$1,254 Wol.
9%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$1,335 Wol.
8%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$2,874 Wol.
5%
4.8-5m sq km
$1,199 Wol.
2%
5m+ sq km
$13,195 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 57.5% probability for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer (August–October 2026), driven by the record-low winter maximum of 14.28 million square kilometers reached on March 15, 2026—the lowest in the 48-year NSIDC satellite record and 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981–2010 average. This poor preconditioning, marked by thin ice, suppressed volume (April 2026 around 18,500 cubic kilometers), and early melt deficits like the second-lowest mid-April extent, signals high vulnerability to rapid summer melt amid warming air temperatures and potential El Niño influences. NOAA seasonal forecasts and ongoing NSIDC monitoring highlight below-average spring extent, though atmospheric patterns could moderate loss; June Sea Ice Outlook updates will refine model consensus.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$48,245Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 57.5% probability for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer (August–October 2026), driven by the record-low winter maximum of 14.28 million square kilometers reached on March 15, 2026—the lowest in the 48-year NSIDC satellite record and 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981–2010 average. This poor preconditioning, marked by thin ice, suppressed volume (April 2026 around 18,500 cubic kilometers), and early melt deficits like the second-lowest mid-April extent, signals high vulnerability to rapid summer melt amid warming air temperatures and potential El Niño influences. NOAA seasonal forecasts and ongoing NSIDC monitoring highlight below-average spring extent, though atmospheric patterns could moderate loss; June Sea Ice Outlook updates will refine model consensus.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Wolumen
$48,245Data zakończenia
Oct 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 57.5% probability for Arctic sea ice minimum extent below 4 million square kilometers this summer (August–October 2026), driven by the record-low winter maximum of 14.28 million square kilometers reached on March 15, 2026—the lowest in the 48-year NSIDC satellite record and 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981–2010 average. This poor preconditioning, marked by thin ice, suppressed volume (April 2026 around 18,500 cubic kilometers), and early melt deficits like the second-lowest mid-April extent, signals high vulnerability to rapid summer melt amid warming air temperatures and potential El Niño influences. NOAA seasonal forecasts and ongoing NSIDC monitoring highlight below-average spring extent, though atmospheric patterns could moderate loss; June Sea Ice Outlook updates will refine model consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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