Federal agents from Homeland Security Investigations executed a search warrant at Rep. Ilhan Omar’s Washington, D.C., residence on October 12, 2026, seizing phones and documents as part of a criminal probe into her family’s immigration paperwork and naturalization process. The Justice Department has issued grand jury subpoenas to relatives, yet no charges or arrest have been announced. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low probability to an arrest by year-end, reflecting the high procedural barriers to detaining a sitting member of Congress, the absence of public indictments, and the timeline needed for any further investigative steps. Upcoming developments that could shift odds include additional subpoenas, court filings on the seized materials, or statements from the administration ahead of the November 3 midterms.