Israel maintains a security zone in southern Syria and has conducted repeated strikes and incursions since late 2024, including eight airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase runway in Idlib province on August 17-18, 2026, and a drone strike near Beit Jinn on August 22. Israeli officials cite intelligence on threats from militants and potential Turkish deployments at northern bases as justification, while Syria condemns these as sovereignty violations and the U.S. has criticized them as escalatory. Ongoing operations target alleged attack preparations along the border, amid diplomatic efforts for deconfliction talks involving the U.S. and monitoring of Turkish-Syrian military cooperation. These patterns of targeted preemptive actions and regional tensions shape assessments of additional Israeli operations in the near term.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIsrael military action against Syria by...?
Israel military action against Syria by...?
$59,901 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
Yes
September 15
Yes
September 30
Yes
$59,901 Wol.
August 31
$34,112 Wol.
Yes
September 15
$20,406 Wol.
Yes
September 30
$5,383 Wol.
Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Syria by the specified date, 11:59 PM Syria Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Syria. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Syria do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Syria” refers to the terrestrial territory of Syria, including its internal waters. Syria’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Syria as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Syria Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Syria and a consensus of credible reporting.Israel maintains a security zone in southern Syria and has conducted repeated strikes and incursions since late 2024, including eight airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase runway in Idlib province on August 17-18, 2026, and a drone strike near Beit Jinn on August 22. Israeli officials cite intelligence on threats from militants and potential Turkish deployments at northern bases as justification, while Syria condemns these as sovereignty violations and the U.S. has criticized them as escalatory. Ongoing operations target alleged attack preparations along the border, amid diplomatic efforts for deconfliction talks involving the U.S. and monitoring of Turkish-Syrian military cooperation. These patterns of targeted preemptive actions and regional tensions shape assessments of additional Israeli operations in the near term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Syria by the specified date, 11:59 PM Syria Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Syria. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Syria do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Syria” refers to the terrestrial territory of Syria, including its internal waters. Syria’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Syria as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Syria Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Syria and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Syria. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Syria do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Syria” refers to the terrestrial territory of Syria, including its internal waters. Syria’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Syria as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Syria Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Syria and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 18, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Wolumen
$59,901Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 18, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Syria by the specified date, 11:59 PM Syria Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Syria. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Syria do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Syria” refers to the terrestrial territory of Syria, including its internal waters. Syria’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Syria as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Syria Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Syria and a consensus of credible reporting.Israel maintains a security zone in southern Syria and has conducted repeated strikes and incursions since late 2024, including eight airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase runway in Idlib province on August 17-18, 2026, and a drone strike near Beit Jinn on August 22. Israeli officials cite intelligence on threats from militants and potential Turkish deployments at northern bases as justification, while Syria condemns these as sovereignty violations and the U.S. has criticized them as escalatory. Ongoing operations target alleged attack preparations along the border, amid diplomatic efforts for deconfliction talks involving the U.S. and monitoring of Turkish-Syrian military cooperation. These patterns of targeted preemptive actions and regional tensions shape assessments of additional Israeli operations in the near term.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Syria by the specified date, 11:59 PM Syria Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Syria. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Syria do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Syria” refers to the terrestrial territory of Syria, including its internal waters. Syria’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Syria as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Syria Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Syria and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Syria. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Syria do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Syria” refers to the terrestrial territory of Syria, including its internal waters. Syria’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Syria as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Syria Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Syria and a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$59,901Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 18, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Wynik zaproponowany: Yes
Brak sporu
Ostateczny wynik: Yes
Israel maintains a security zone in southern Syria and has conducted repeated strikes and incursions since late 2024, including eight airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase runway in Idlib province on August 17-18, 2026, and a drone strike near Beit Jinn on August 22. Israeli officials cite intelligence on threats from militants and potential Turkish deployments at northern bases as justification, while Syria condemns these as sovereignty violations and the U.S. has criticized them as escalatory. Ongoing operations target alleged attack preparations along the border, amid diplomatic efforts for deconfliction talks involving the U.S. and monitoring of Turkish-Syrian military cooperation. These patterns of targeted preemptive actions and regional tensions shape assessments of additional Israeli operations in the near term.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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