Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party secured a supermajority in the February 2026 snap election, providing a strong mandate that reduces any immediate incentive for another Lower House dissolution before the 2028 term ends. Recent developments reinforce stability: the September 2026 cabinet reshuffle emphasized policy continuity, approval ratings reached 59 percent, and an extraordinary Diet session is scheduled for October 5 to advance targeted legislation on consumption tax relief and seat reductions. Opposition parties remain fragmented after the Centrist Reform Alliance split, limiting pressure for early elections. Traders assign 96.5 percent probability to no dissolution in 2026 because the ruling coalition faces no urgent procedural, electoral, or coalition-maintenance triggers. Late-year shifts could still arise from an unforeseen scandal, sharp economic downturn, or sudden loss of Diet support, though none appear imminent based on current legislative and polling trends.