**Traders assign a 93.5% probability to no Supreme Court vacancy occurring in 2026 because the two justices most frequently discussed as potential retirees have signaled they intend to remain on the bench.** In August 2026, Justice Samuel Alito explicitly stated he is staying for another term, following earlier speculation tied to health rumors and conservative calls for strategic departures that would allow President Trump to name additional justices before the November midterms. Justice Clarence Thomas has similarly conveyed no retirement plans this year through sources close to the Court. With only three months remaining and no other justices indicating imminent departures, these direct statements from the senior members have anchored market pricing around the low historical base rate for annual vacancies absent confirmed exits.