Justice Clarence Thomas, the Supreme Court's most senior member at age 78, has shown no public or private signals of impending retirement as of mid-September 2026. Sources close to him confirmed in April that he does not plan to step down this year or in the immediate term, aligning with his prior statements about serving well into the 2030s. President Trump has expressed a preference for Thomas and Justice Alito to remain on the bench rather than create vacancies during the current term. Recent developments include Thomas actively questioning counsel during oral arguments on September 15 for the first time in years, underscoring continued engagement. With the new Supreme Court term beginning in October and no reported health, ethical, or institutional pressures, trader consensus assigns low implied probability to an announcement by late 2026 while reflecting greater uncertainty around mid-2027 dates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$10,810 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30, 2026
4%
December 31, 2026
8%
June 30, 2027
11%
$10,810 Wol.
September 30, 2026
$56 Wol.
4%
December 31, 2026
$1,323 Wol.
8%
June 30, 2027
$9,430 Wol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.
Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.Justice Clarence Thomas, the Supreme Court's most senior member at age 78, has shown no public or private signals of impending retirement as of mid-September 2026. Sources close to him confirmed in April that he does not plan to step down this year or in the immediate term, aligning with his prior statements about serving well into the 2030s. President Trump has expressed a preference for Thomas and Justice Alito to remain on the bench rather than create vacancies during the current term. Recent developments include Thomas actively questioning counsel during oral arguments on September 15 for the first time in years, underscoring continued engagement. With the new Supreme Court term beginning in October and no reported health, ethical, or institutional pressures, trader consensus assigns low implied probability to an announcement by late 2026 while reflecting greater uncertainty around mid-2027 dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.
Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.
The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.
Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 1, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Wolumen
$10,810Data zakończenia
Jul 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 1, 2026, 5:47 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.
Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.Justice Clarence Thomas, the Supreme Court's most senior member at age 78, has shown no public or private signals of impending retirement as of mid-September 2026. Sources close to him confirmed in April that he does not plan to step down this year or in the immediate term, aligning with his prior statements about serving well into the 2030s. President Trump has expressed a preference for Thomas and Justice Alito to remain on the bench rather than create vacancies during the current term. Recent developments include Thomas actively questioning counsel during oral arguments on September 15 for the first time in years, underscoring continued engagement. With the new Supreme Court term beginning in October and no reported health, ethical, or institutional pressures, trader consensus assigns low implied probability to an announcement by late 2026 while reflecting greater uncertainty around mid-2027 dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.
Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.
The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.
Any qualifying announcement from Thomas will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Thomas or one of his official representatives.
Wolumen
$10,810Data zakończenia
Jul 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 1, 2026, 5:47 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Justice Clarence Thomas, the Supreme Court's most senior member at age 78, has shown no public or private signals of impending retirement as of mid-September 2026. Sources close to him confirmed in April that he does not plan to step down this year or in the immediate term, aligning with his prior statements about serving well into the 2030s. President Trump has expressed a preference for Thomas and Justice Alito to remain on the bench rather than create vacancies during the current term. Recent developments include Thomas actively questioning counsel during oral arguments on September 15 for the first time in years, underscoring continued engagement. With the new Supreme Court term beginning in October and no reported health, ethical, or institutional pressures, trader consensus assigns low implied probability to an announcement by late 2026 while reflecting greater uncertainty around mid-2027 dates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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