Trader consensus on Maduro's potential prison sentence reflects the uncertainty of his ongoing federal narco-terrorism and drug trafficking case in New York, where he has remained in pretrial detention at MDC Brooklyn since U.S. special forces captured him in Caracas on January 3, 2026. The leading 60+ years probability stems from mandatory minimums tied to charges historically yielding decades-long terms for similar narcotraficantes like Hugo Carvajal, who recently pleaded guilty and may testify. Close trailing odds for 20–40 years and no prison time highlight risks of plea bargains, evidentiary challenges, or diplomatic interventions, amplified by late April's U.S. sanctions relief allowing Venezuelan funding for his defense. Pretrial motions and a distant trial date keep the race tight; conviction strength or witness deals could widen spreads.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano60+ 35%
20–40 25.8%
Brak kary więzienia 23%
40–60 10%
$527,018 Wol.
$527,018 Wol.
Dec 31, 2027
Brak kary więzienia
23%
<20
5%
20–40
26%
40–60
10%
60+
35%
60+ 35%
20–40 25.8%
Brak kary więzienia 23%
40–60 10%
$527,018 Wol.
$527,018 Wol.
Dec 31, 2027
Brak kary więzienia
$373,571 Wol.
23%
<20
$57,253 Wol.
5%
20–40
$48,069 Wol.
26%
40–60
$15,908 Wol.
10%
60+
$32,216 Wol.
35%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Maduro's potential prison sentence reflects the uncertainty of his ongoing federal narco-terrorism and drug trafficking case in New York, where he has remained in pretrial detention at MDC Brooklyn since U.S. special forces captured him in Caracas on January 3, 2026. The leading 60+ years probability stems from mandatory minimums tied to charges historically yielding decades-long terms for similar narcotraficantes like Hugo Carvajal, who recently pleaded guilty and may testify. Close trailing odds for 20–40 years and no prison time highlight risks of plea bargains, evidentiary challenges, or diplomatic interventions, amplified by late April's U.S. sanctions relief allowing Venezuelan funding for his defense. Pretrial motions and a distant trial date keep the race tight; conviction strength or witness deals could widen spreads.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Wolumen
$527,018Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Maduro's potential prison sentence reflects the uncertainty of his ongoing federal narco-terrorism and drug trafficking case in New York, where he has remained in pretrial detention at MDC Brooklyn since U.S. special forces captured him in Caracas on January 3, 2026. The leading 60+ years probability stems from mandatory minimums tied to charges historically yielding decades-long terms for similar narcotraficantes like Hugo Carvajal, who recently pleaded guilty and may testify. Close trailing odds for 20–40 years and no prison time highlight risks of plea bargains, evidentiary challenges, or diplomatic interventions, amplified by late April's U.S. sanctions relief allowing Venezuelan funding for his defense. Pretrial motions and a distant trial date keep the race tight; conviction strength or witness deals could widen spreads.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$527,018Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Maduro's potential prison sentence reflects the uncertainty of his ongoing federal narco-terrorism and drug trafficking case in New York, where he has remained in pretrial detention at MDC Brooklyn since U.S. special forces captured him in Caracas on January 3, 2026. The leading 60+ years probability stems from mandatory minimums tied to charges historically yielding decades-long terms for similar narcotraficantes like Hugo Carvajal, who recently pleaded guilty and may testify. Close trailing odds for 20–40 years and no prison time highlight risks of plea bargains, evidentiary challenges, or diplomatic interventions, amplified by late April's U.S. sanctions relief allowing Venezuelan funding for his defense. Pretrial motions and a distant trial date keep the race tight; conviction strength or witness deals could widen spreads.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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