Lamar Jackson's strong mutual interest with the Ravens in finalizing a new contract extension stands as the dominant factor behind the 99.2% implied probability that he will not be traded before the 2026 regular season. The two-time MVP has reiterated his long-term commitment to Baltimore during OTAs and other offseason activities, while the front office continues extension discussions aimed at managing his $74.5 million 2026 cap number rather than exploring the trade market. Recent reporting shows limited progress on a deal but no active negotiations with other clubs or formal trade requests, consistent with Jackson's no-trade clause and the Ravens' preference to retain their franchise quarterback. Although some league executives have floated hypothetical scenarios for 2027 or beyond if talks stall, the current lack of friction, combined with Jackson's on-field value and roster fit, underpins trader consensus. A sudden breakdown in negotiations or unforeseen injury could still shift dynamics before the September resolution, though such developments remain unlikely in the short term.