Apvienotais saraksts (AS), the United List party of Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, leads recent polling ahead of Latvia’s October 3 Saeima election but faces a fragmented field that limits its projected margin. SKDS surveys from September placed AS first at 14.4 percent, ahead of Sovereign Power at 9.4 percent and Latvia First near 9 percent, pointing to a single-digit lead amid seven parties likely clearing the 5 percent threshold. Security concerns tied to Russian drone incursions and Ukraine policy have shaped voter priorities, boosting AS while sustaining support for populist and pro-Russian options that split the remainder of the vote. Early turnout above 5 percent and high undecided shares add volatility, with coalition negotiations expected to follow regardless of the final margin. Trader consensus on margins in the 5–15 point range reflects these narrow polling gaps and the multi-party dynamic.