Forecast models from sources including the South African Weather Service and international ensembles point to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light northerly winds as the main driver for Cape Town’s October 8 minimum. Historical spring baselines place typical lows near 12–13 °C, yet recent model runs show 9–11 °C possible if cloud cover remains limited and dew-point depression allows efficient heat loss. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 8–10 °C because small differences in simulated wind speed, humidity, and urban heat-island effects can shift the recorded minimum by 1–2 °C at the official station. Updated evening soundings and any last-hour cloud changes will determine whether the outcome settles at the lower or upper end of that narrow band.