**Official measurements from the Hong Kong Observatory confirm a minimum air temperature of 26.9°C on October 14, 2026, at the primary station, aligning precisely with the market's dominant 26°C outcome.** This reflects a warm night under prevailing easterly flow, with temperatures holding above typical October climatological lows near 23.9°C. Hourly data and station reports across the territory showed no readings dipping to 25°C or below, eliminating realistic pathways for alternative resolutions once the day concluded. The near-100% market pricing captures this post-event certainty from verified observational records rather than forecasts.