Recent forecast models from agencies tracking regional atmospheric patterns have converged on a 16°C overnight minimum for Istanbul on October 12, driving the 95% market-implied probability for that outcome. A brief warm spell associated with southerly flow has given way to northerly advection of cooler maritime air, with observed temperatures already dipping toward this threshold amid increasing cloud cover and light precipitation. Official meteorological guidance shows limited divergence across ensemble runs, supporting trader consensus that 16°C will mark the daily low at standard measurement sites. A faster-moving cold front or localized urban heat island effects could push readings slightly higher or lower, though such shifts appear unlikely given current steering patterns and the narrow resolution window.