Recent forecast models from sources including the GFS and ECMWF indicate overnight lows near 13–14°C for Mexico City on October 12, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90–100%, and scattered showers that limit radiative cooling overnight. These conditions align with the ongoing rainy season pattern over the central Mexican plateau, where seasonal averages for minimum temperatures hover around 10–12°C but current moisture and weak winds are supporting milder readings. Trader consensus, reflected in the 49% implied probability for 8°C or below alongside elevated odds around 10–14°C, appears to weigh model consensus against historical variability and potential for localized cooling in clearer intervals. Updated model runs and official CONAGUA guidance ahead of the date remain key variables that could shift these market-implied odds.